Date: 2015-01-12

The unveiling of a one-time Special Adviser on Security Matters in Kwara State, Alhaji Ahmed Yinka Aluko, few weeks ago, as Deputy Governorship candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the state for the forthcoming general elections had ostensibly added a fillip to the political maneuvering and permutation of the opposition in the state.

Before the ratification of Aluko,  series of meetings including caucus and nocturnal were held by stakeholders of the PDP both in Ilorin and Abuja to arrive at who to pick as second in command of the state government.

Senator Simeon Sule Ajibola had already been elected as governorship candidate of the party but not without resentment over the possibility of the party to carry the day going by his choice at the primary.

The incumbent Governor Abdulfatah Ahmed is the candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) while the founder of Mike Omotosho Foundation, Dr Mike Omotosho, had been picked as flag-bearer of the Labour Party. Hitherto the latter party is seen as a rookie in the state polity, but with few weeks to the election, it is expected to pull strings.

The ruling APC is intensifying gamut of efforts to retain all its strongholds and win all elective positions in the much touted polls. Apart from the governorship poll, the three senatorial, six House of Representatives and 24 State House of Assembly seats would also be contested.

Interestingly, the three governorship candidates hail from Kwara South. Governor Ahmed hails from Share, Ifelodun Local Government, while the duo of Ajibola and Omotosho are from Isapa and Obbo respectively in Ekiti Local Government Area of the state. The origin of the trio would play a significant role in their election.

For the PDP, an unconfirmed report had it that a governorship aspirant of the party, Hakeem Lawal, was initially penned down as running mate to Ajibola.

Hakeem is a son of the late former Governor of the state, Alhaji Mohammed Lawal.

When the coast became unclear coupled with uncertainty over the political clout of the son of the late former governor, stakeholders resolved to settle for the choice of Aluko admirably referred to as “original home boy and Esho” by his teeming supporters.

He had earlier won the senatorial ticket of the PDP for Kwara Central seat in the National Assembly at the primary conducted late last year.

However, his emergence became a subject of controversy as there was intense plot to replace him with the runner up in the contest, the decision, which he hastily challenged at the High Court sitting in Ilorin. He secured a court order, which restrained any move to substitute his candidacy.

The party, in its strategic move to curry votes from Kwara Central, reversed in its earlier decision on the running mate to Ajibola and picked Aluko, who is believed to be deeply rooted at home than other party chieftains being considered for the plum job.

Former Chairman of the Federal Character Commission (FCC), Professor Shuaib Oba Abdulraheem, was said to be highly instrumental in the choice of Aluko.

Abdulraheem was among twelve governorship aspirants of the PDP but was defeated at the contest.

Even with this development, some factors are likely to play out as considerations in deciding what party and personality that forms the next government.

Though PDP had boasted that it would surprise the ruling APC in the elections, the coast seems not clear for the party.

Reasons:

Faith: Without mincing words, all eyes would be on Kwara Central, believed to be the epic centre of politics of the state. The major votes from Ilorin emirate, the state capital in particular would be decided based on religious consideration. Statistically, ninety five percent of indigenes of the city are predominantly muslims and it would take extra effort to convince them to change their mind on whom to support among the aspirants especially for the apex seat of power in the state.

The voting populace of Kwara South and North would also put faith to consideration in choosing who administers the affairs of the state for the next four years. Unequivocally, the votes from the two districts form the larger chunk of votes to expect in the coming days.

The trio of APC, PDP and LP are not resting on their oars to win the heart of the people from the metropolitan city through various strategies including radio jingles, posters, stickers, wristbands,  and campaign billboards.

Popularity: Politics is a game of choice, number and full of uncertainty. If popularity of parties seeking political power is to be put to test, one would outfox others in terms of presence and acceptability by the voting populace. The presence of the ruling APC is felt with intimidating structure. The major opposition, PDP, appeared unfazed with this reality and has vowed to come up with surprise during the day of voting. The LP, an offshoot of the organised labour, is yet to launch a major strategy to change the political calculations. With elections some weeks away, the party may soon display its strategies to draw interested electorate to its side.

Mobilization: The determining factor of winning in an election comes with the ability of political parties to strategically mobilize and woo the electorate. This can be done through different means. Without prejudice, the ruling APC possesses mass appeal unlike the opposition. But since the game of politics is dicey, the electorate would determine the fate of the candidates.

Projects: No society can boast of any development without those at the helms of affairs and spirited individuals contributing their part to the growth of that society. Governor Ahmed, upon assumption office, started on a good note with numerous developmental projects including road construction and rehabilitation, provision of water, affordable and quality education, health care services and new economic blueprint touching the lives of the people positively. These bulk of achievements would be used to draw support of the people for continuity.

For the PDP candidate, Senator Ajibola who is currently representing Kwara South in the National Assembly, he would give account of his stewardship in the last ten years in the red chamber to ascertain whether the voting populace would dance to his tune. As the governorship election closes in, he would use his ‘self acclaimed achievements’ to create a platform for people to vote for the PDP.

While in the case of Mike Omotosho, founder of Mike Omotosho Foundation, he would also be banking on the support of the people through various empowerment schemes he had initiated, believed to have imparted on the lives of the beneficiaries.

Omotosho, a former member of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), lost in his bid to get the party’s ticket for the House of Representatives seat of Ekiti/Irepodun/Isin/Oke-Ero Federal Constituency at the primary election held late last year and decided to dump the party for the LP as part of efforts to realize his ambition in the forthcoming general elections, though he opted for governorship in his new party.

There was initial controversy over Omotosho’s candidacy since the party had offered Mr AbdulHakeem Adelaja-Amao the governorship ticket, but state Secretary of the LP, Comrade Abdulkareem Mumini Onagun, doused the tension, saying the party resolved to back Omotosho after series of talks with him while Adelaja-Amao who ought to fly the party’s flag failed to meet up with the payment for nomination form of the party within time frame in line with the directive by the Independent National Electoral Commission.

He noted that all persuasions to ensure that Adelaja-Amao paid for the nomination form of the party were rebuffed, pointing out that he only succeeded in paying for the party’s form of intent.

“Engineer AbdulHakeem Adelaja-Amao happened to be a member of our party. He joined us last year, and he did some things for us in terms of uplifting the party, which  actually we appreciate.

“When we realized that the election is coming up, he (Adelaja-Amao) sought that he wanted to be governorship candidate of the party. He went to Abuja to collect the form of intent of the party for sum of N1million. He supposed to pay another N6.5million for nomination form, he didn’t pay. He kept on telling the party, I will pay today, I will pay tomorrow. He even wrote cheques, which actually bounced.

“And the party at the National didn’t want us to miss that chance in Kwara. So the party directed that the State chairman should fill the INEC form so that he would be able to retain the governorship seat for us in the state pending when we would be able to get a credible and reliable candidate, who would not be somebody that would be dilly-dallying with us.

“After awhile, some of us have been in talk with Dr Mike Omotosho and some others. I don’t want to mention name. And they have been promising that we should just be patient. Last week, we got the green-card from Abuja by the National leadership. The state chairman of the party, Babalola Johnson and myself were summoned to Abuja, we met and we discussed, and instantly, the man (Omotosho) agreed to actually obtain the form and pay all the necessary fees, which he paid immediately and there and then, the National leadership of the party gave him the go ahead to be the governorship candidate of Kwara State”, he said.

However,  it is held that this year’s general elections seem to have changed the state political calculations in the state with opposition vowing to square it up with the ruling party structure.

As election day draws closer, pundits believe the antecedents of each candidates of the three parties of the APC, PDP and LP would determine their outing at the poll.