Only a couple of months ago, the general feeling was that many Kwarans, including members of his own party, the All Progressive Congress (APC), did not want the incumbent Governor AbdulFatah Ahmed to get a second term. For that reason, everyone was expecting the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to field a credible candidate to challenge the status quo. At some point, hope was buoyed with Mr. Dele Belgore (SAN), who in 2011 contested on the platform of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) crossing over to the PDP where Senator Makanjuola Ajadi, currently a special adviser to President Goodluck Jonathan was also a strong contender. Either of these two would have presented a serious alternative and so would have Senator Gbemisola Rukayyat Saraki, a brilliant and respected grassroots politician in her own right. But at the end of the day, in one of those drawbacks of delegate election, it was the little-known Senator Simeon Ajibola who won the PDP ticket by a simple majority in an all-comers race.

Polling 144 votes, representing just about 22 percent of total votes cast, Ajibola defeated other aspirants like Belgore (130 votes), Gbemisola Saraki (113 votes), Ajadi (107), Professor Oba Abdulraheem (58 votes), Hon. Bio Ibrahim (45 votes), Engineer Jani Ibrahim (27 votes), Alhaji Hakeem Lawal (13), Deacon John Dara (four), Sunday Babalola (three votes) and Kale Belgore (one vote). However, it is one thing to win party primaries where the size of your purse dictates the tune, it is another thing to win in a state-wide gubernatorial election.

I was in Kwara State during the Christmas holiday and the feeling of most of the people I spoke to is that Governor Ahmed can begin planning for his second term inauguration and I was not surprised. Given my understanding of Kwara politics, I do not see how Senator Ajibola can defeat the incumbent when you consider all the variables at play which may include religion, ethnicity and geo-political alliances. What compounds the problem for the PDP candidate (who is spending his 8th year as a senator) is that he does not command name-recognition in the state he wants to govern and that in itself is very telling of his contributions as a lawmaker in Abuja.

However, I must admit that as a Kwaran, I feel very concerned about the direction of politics in my state. This is an issue I will come back to another day. But as far as the coming gubernatorial election is concerned, I am not expecting any miracle.