The question about zoning taking precedent in determining where the next governor of Kwara State should come from among the three senatorial districts in the state is generating heated debate and much passion among the major stakeholders, writes Biola Azeez.

The battle for the Government House in Kwara State has begun in earnest. Various vested interests have been mapping out strategies aimed at placing themselves in better stead for the government House Ilorin. One underlining issue in the front burner is the policy of zoning. It is generating intense discussion and interrogation in most circles across the three senatorial zones in the state. Many interest groups and individuals are raising concern on the disposition of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) to the pervasive discussion on the matter. Coupled with this is the series of meetings being held by high profile indigenes at different levels on the subject matter.

Central to the discussion and debate is where the next governor of the state should come from. To be precise, the crux of the matter is the imperative of equity, fairness and sense of belonging in determining the district that should produce the successor of Governor Abdulrahman Abdulrasaq in the Government House at the expiration of his two terms of four years in 2027. This is against the backdrop of the fact that both Kwara South and Kwara Central have occupied the seat in the last 25 years.

Towards this end, notable politicians across political parties in Kwara North have formed a common front in their bid to ensuring that the zone produces the next governor of the state. To actualise the district's desire politicians from the parties in the state, including the All Progressives Congress (APC), Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Labour Party (LP) attended a stakeholders meeting convened by an APC stalwart, Senator Mohammed Ahmed.

According to the communique, issued at the end of the meeting and signed by Senator Mohammed Ahmed, the stakeholders reiterated their stand on the need for Kwara North to be given the opportunity of producing the next governor. "Kwara North for governor come 2027 is highly desirable. The meeting acknowledged and thanked the royal fathers and youth groups in the district, for consistently championing the course of power shift to Kwara North. The meeting, however, recommended the need to reach out to Kwara Central and Kwara South senatorial districts for strategic consultations and persuasions, as power is never served 'a la carte."

The issues of marginalisation and under development were discussed, and the meeting resolved that a high powered committee be set up to address the issues holistically and work out a framework for the realisation of their objectives. This, according to the meeting, would be in the overall interest and spirit of brotherhood, togetherness, equity, fairness and justice that have eluded the Kwara North senatorial district since the Fourth Republic.

It would recalled that in 2019, the APC successfully secured power from the then ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the state. The tsunami that swept the PDP away during the general election was revalidated in the 2023 elections. However, analysts are of the opinion that the landslide recorded by Kwara APC in the 2019 and 2023 general elections were made possible by the overwhelming votes garnered by the party from the Kwara Central to pave the way for the first revolution in the annals of the state.

Speaking on the development, the coordinator of the Kwara Coalitions For Good Governance (KCGG), Mallam Isiaka Mohammed, said that Kwara Central is central to the victory of the ruling APC, calling on leaders of the ruling party to be careful in steps to retain power. "Let it be noted with caution that as Kwara Central senatorial district is to the victory of the ruling APC, it cannot be left open for the opposition elements who are scheming to become the next governor of the state. Like a cat waiting to ambush a rat to devour it, the PDP are waiting in the wings to hijack power in the event that APC fails to choose its governorship flag bearer from the Kwara Central zone." The group, which said that the APC in Kwara is not under any obligation to act any unscripted and undocumented power shift agenda on the altar of moral compass, added that, "to do that on moral concerns and consideration will be an attempt to dig the grave of the party in the 2027 election." According to the organisation, leaders of the APC should draw lessons from established winning strategies by some states, which it said picked their gubernatorial candidates from the majority and not from the minority zones. "Instances abound in Oyo State where politicians capitalised on the population of Ibadan to win elections. The same scenario often plays out in the case of Benue State that would never zone gubernatorial ticket to any other areas other than Tiv as the dominant factor for winning elections. References can also be made to Kebbi State, where Kebbi North is always favoured to produce governors while the Southern Kaduna is always disfavoured for being in the minority in Kaduna State and zoning ticket there is virtually unthinkable

"Again, Kwara APC should be reminded that the ultimate goal of any political party is to win elections without being dogmatic and enslaved to the principles of equity, fairness and justice in the struggles to acquire power. Even the highly revered royal father of Ilorin, His Royal Highness, Dr. Ibrahim Sulu-Gambari, in his recent address to a group of stakeholders in the state at his palace, alluded to the centrality of Kwara Central to once again produce the next occupant of the Government House, otherwise called Ahmadu Bello House, the seat of power in the State of Harmony. The position of the Emir of Ilorin was also amplified at the walimat Quran ceremony held at Agbaji in Ilorin by the Makama of Ilorin Emirate, Alhaji Ibrahim Oniye, who said that, "Ilorin for number one in the 2027 governorship election is non-negotiable and there is no going back. The message here by Makama buttresses the fact that Ilorin will not play a second fiddle and that the number one position for Ilorin in the seat of power is sacrosanct."

However, as the 2027 general election is approaching, the counsel by stakeholders, leaders of the party and other well-meaning indigenes of the state is that APC gubernatorial ticket should be expediently retained in Kwara Central. A member of the party, Hassan Aliyu of Gaa Akanbi Ward, Ilorin shared the view, saying: "This is because Kwara Central parades huge numerical strength that could deliver almost 50 per cent of the cumulative votes in the state, thus, making the senatorial district the undisputable determinant of the direction where the pendulum of victory shall swing in 2027. APC leadership under the incumbent Kwara State governor should know that those clamouring for power shift to Kwara North are doing so by figments of their imagination and are being paid to drum support for non-existing agreement at the detriment of the party's chances of winning the 2027 gubernatorial election. To zone the ticket to less populated and politically fragmented Kwara North zone will be tantamount to embarking on a journey of self inflicted pitfalls and suicidal mission for the party. God forbid!."

Some observers also assume that the victory of the ruling party in the 2027 is a done deal provided a strong and formidable touch bearer emerges from the Kwara Central they hinge the victory on number. "No doubt, Kwara Central parades qualified governorship hopefuls, the likes of Yahaya Seriki, the former Minister of National Planning and the Director General National Institute for Legislative and Democratic Studies, Professor Abubakar Olanrewaju Sulaiman and Senator Saliu Mustapha who could be trusted with power to build on the monumental achievements of Governor Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq. Undoubtedly, Kwara Central has a huge history behind it going forward by the trajectory of leveraging the bulk votes from five local government areas comprising Ilorin West, Ilorin South, Ilorin East and Asa as well as parts of Moro to win elections as it had done in the past. It will, therefore, amount to swimming against the tide of history if APC fails to accept the clarion calls by the esteemed stakeholders of the party to choose rightly and wisely from among potential contenders for the governorship race in the Kwara Central. If the political calculus of the leadership of the opposition party is to choose the PDP standard bearer from Kwara Central it will reinforce the fact that they have learnt from the bitter lesson of fielding a candidate from Kwara North in 2023 election against the populated Kwara Central candidate and the sitting governor who sought re-election and got it courtesy of massive voting powers of the Kwara Central." They warned that leader of APC must be circumspect and strategic to counter the PDP's plot and ploy by neutralising their mindsets game of fielding a candidate from Kwara Central and not to pick the party's candidate from Kwara North in the coming election.

Time indeed will tell where the pendulum will swing as the battle for 2027 gets more intense and captivating in the months ahead.