Few, if any state, will generate as much political interest as Kwara North-Central as the countdown to 2023 general elections begins in earnest. Up for grabs is the governorship seat, currently occupied by the incumbent, Governor Abdulrahaman Abdulrazak, who, to a greater extent may have been underrated by his political enemies.

Until his coming in 2019, the state had largely been run as a political fiefdom, firmly in the grip of the family of the late Chief Olusola Saraki, Senate Leader in the National Party of Nigeria second republic federal government.

The determined political coalitions armed with the ‘Otoge’ manthra (loosely translated as enough is enough), was hurriedly put together ahead the election to wrest power from the family whose scion, Abubakar Bukola Saraki the then Senate President, held sway.

The mantra, which was sold to the ordinary folks as a synonym for independence, or even freedom from a dynasty that had determined who ruled the state since the Second Republic, was enough to pull the rug off the feet of Saraki, who was also fighting the battle of his political life at the federal level.

It was a fierce battle to demystify the lion, not only in his Kwara stronghold, where he lost his Senate seat, but also at the national level, where he was unable to return to the hallowed chamber as the number two man in the country’s hierarchy.

The PDP appears to have put all that in the past in his home state as what is left of the Saraki political family rallies for a rematch with APC come 2023.

But if there will be any major challenge for the incumbent governor, it may not be from the PDP per se, according to some analysts.

Abdulrazak’s biggest opponents today are members of his own party, currently factionalized over some irreconcilable differences.

Leading the faction is Alhaji Lai Mohammed, Minister of Information. Many believe that Mohammed’s closeness to Bola Tinubu, his long-standing ally and national APC leader, reputed to have a formidable political structure and formidable financial war chest is all the minister’s faction needs to nullify the governor’s incumbency factor.

This may not be since Asiwaju Tinubu needs all of the concentration as he battles other forces in the fight for who replaces President Muhammadu Buhari in May 2023.

The Mohammed faction still has the backing of Gbemisola, the Minister of State (Transport) and sister of the former Senate President, who teamed with the Otoge band in the fight to dislodge her brother.

The governor seems unfazed, having retained control of the mainstream APC in Kwara recognized by Abuja.

He has not allowed the internal political skirmish of the APC distract his government.

The Mohammed group also runs a tight and well organized factional party in the state, all due to the dexterity of Bashir Omolaja Bolarinwa, a former member of the House of Representatives, who emerged chairman after a factional congress held late last year.

The governor’s confidence may well stem from a number of factors, the biggest of which is incumbency, which has largely helped him consolidate his hold on the party structure, since as the national hierarchy told the Lai Mohammed group, the governor is leader of the party at the state level. Secondly, the major political gladiators in the state are greatly factionalized, hence the popular opinion that Abdurazak may not have so much money to attract more of the rebels to his cause.

What is also going for him are the even spread of infrastructure projects in the far flung areas hitherto neglected by previous governments, prompt payment of salaries and even policies on gender development in the state.

With these, the popular opinion is that voters may well be persuaded to trust Abdulrazak for another tenure.

But for many, victory may not come easily as there is still a lot to worry about, given the calibre of men angling within and outside his party to take his plum job.

These men arrayed against him, ready to abort his return bid for the Government House in 2023 are formidable foes in their own right.

Yakubu Gobir: Pharmacist And Philanthropist

If the choice of who becomes the Kwara State Governor in 2023 rests on making a clean break away from the tendencies that pervade either of PDP or APC, and the need for a candidate with proven executive capacity in business and who is in sync with the pulse of the ordinary man on the street, that man is Yakubu Garba Gobir, pharmacist, entrepreneur, philanthropist extraordinaire and politician, all things being equal.

Gobir is from Kwara Central, Ilorin, to be specific, like the incumbent, and has spent the last undermining the APC, a party he helped bring to power in the state in 2019, over disenchantment on the course the party and governor have taken in the governance of the state.

There are talks that he could fly the flag of the Youth Progressives Party, YPP, a party he has firmly repositioned into the consciousness of Kwara voters as a viable option in 2023, if the choice of either APC or PDP, is no longer open.

Gobir comes well equipped. Harvard trained, he had a stint with Pfizer and Hoechst in Nigeria, before starting his marketing and distribution company- Smart Mark Limited, with which he opened up the Nigerian market for a number of multinationals including Swatch, Sara Lee, Wella, L’Oreal, Unilever, Nike, Adidas, Levi’s, Converse, T.M Lewin, Tommy Hilfiger, Aldo, Dune, Clark’s and Mothercare. The company currently employs over 500 people.

As a prelude to his foray into politics, Gobir found an uncanny interest in philanthropy, because in his words: “What is the use of making money when you have people who can’t even afford the basic essentials of life.”

He started his Gobir Organization, a foundation through which he reaches out to the people. He was a major backer of the Otoge Movement that sponsored APC into governance in Kwara at the expense of the erstwhile Senate President, Bukola Saraki.

But between 2019 and now, a lot has changed. Gobir, to most political pundits, has become a political colossus, movement and possible challenger for the seat of the state governor.

As much as he is a contender in the forthcoming governorship election, unseating Governor Abdulrazak might become way too herculean. Like the governor, Gobir is from Kwara Central.

Political calculations may not favour him because another Ilorin man emerging governor in 2023 automatically forecloses the chance of Kwara North, a zone believed to be the next to produce the governor from doing so for another eight years, since he would not willingly do a single term.

Even more, he stands a huge challenge in convincing the zone to back him, given Abdulrazak’s smart decision to open up Kwara North to economic investment via massive road infrastructure, citing of critical institutional projects to stimulate the economy in the area.

Zakari Mohammed And The Godfather Factor

Will 2023 be the moment Hon Zakari Mohammed, former House of Reps member, gets rewarded for his unflinching loyalty and a political fixer of a sort to the former Senate President, Bukola Saraki? Although had quite a distinguished career as a journalist, and a special assistant to Saraki as governor, and later a commissioner, Mohammed is rarely mentioned in any major fit of accomplishment in Kwara. More or less, he remains a Saraki lackey, a reason, perhaps, why although his Party, PDP, says it has zoned the guber ticket to his Kwara North, Mohammed’s his kinsmen on handing to him on a platter. Reason? They say there has been no benefit, whatsoever, from his closeness to power all along. But politics is a funny game, especially in Kwara PDP, where people often have their say, while Saraki is believed to always have his way. Most people close to the party hierarchy insist Mohammed is Saraki’s choice, and talks are ongoing with leaders in Kwara North as to why it should be so. Arguments being advanced in his favour are that Zakari has remained a selfless politician.

It is said that “unlike most of politicians who use offices to secretly build their political structures back home, Zakari has always yielded to the dictum of serving the greater good.

 If Zakari has five slots of appointment in a federal or state agency, he concedes all to his political leader for even distribution,” explained a party member to our correspondent.

But keen observers of Saraki’s political structure are often uneasy at what appears Mohammed’s near absence of executive capacity. They are unhappy, for instance, that Kwara United, the darling football club of the state, went into relegation under his watch.

Rather than axe him, Saraki kept him, allegedly because extraneous factors, especially from fans and the royal palace in Ilorin, forced some decisions on the club that Mohammed couldn’t stop for fear of a political backlash.

“But shouldn’t that have served as a litmus test for his ability like it served for a man like Bolaji Abdullahi, Abdullahi Kanike, Alli Ahmad, Bio Ibrahim and many others,” queried a party source.

Prof Shuaibu Abdulraheem As Trump Card

Love or hate him, only a man like Prof. Shuaib Oba Abdulraheem stands a better chance to stand toe to toe with Governor Abdulrazak in an open contest for the party ticket ahead 2023. In fact, some apocryphal account of the last governorship primary in Kwara State has it that Abdulraheem emerged winner of the contest but was substituted for the incumbent by fiat from some political leaders of APC.

The state chapter of the party is currently in two factions after the third has coalesced into YPP. Heading the factional wing as chairman is Bashir Omolaja Bolarinwa, BOB, with the political leadership of the faction vested in the Minister of Information.

 There are talks of producing a formidable opponent to wrest the party ticket from Abdulrazak ahead of 2023 and the most visible for now, appears to be Prof Abdulraheem. The calculation is that only a popular Ilorin son like the governor can wrest power from him. “Under such arrangement, Ilorin will not lose out. Prof Abdulraheem’s popularity rests on his past services to his people, while occupying various in offices,” explained an APC to the newspaper.

As a don at the Bayero University, Kano, for example, he is believed to have helped many Ilorin sons obtain admission, and employment when he became the Vice Chancellor. But the snag, however, is that the mainstream of the party recognized by Abuja is firmly in the hands of Governor Abdulrazak, besides the argument that other zones in the state may not readily vote him for the same reason that he is also an Ilorin man like the governor, even if he manages to snatch the party ticket. There is also the factor of age.

The professor will be 75 this October, a factor that may work against his aspiration at a time there is clamour for younger and more vibrant candidates for elections across the country. Governor Abdulrazak may just be poised for yet another victory party next year, all considered.

However, it is still early in the journey to 2023, as there could be a third force, or a coalition of forces against him, and even foes of today may forget their differences, realign and, together, go for his jugular.