The struggle for power has intensified in Kwara State among the three senatorial districts, ahead of next year's elections. Which zone will produce the next governor? EMMANUEL OLADESU examines the jostling for the governorship by All Progressives Congress (APC) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) chieftains.

Kwara State Governor Abdulfatah Ahmed will complete his first term next year.

Ahead of the general elections, the three districts have begun agitations for power shift. The two political parties-the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) - are making projections into the future, based on the antagonistic clamour for power shift by competing zones. Sources said that the governor may have kicked off a subtle re-election campaign, based on the projection. Although he has not publicly declared his intention to seek a second term, his body language has confirmed that he is pushing for continuity in office.

Ahmed is from the South Senatorial District. His kinsmen have stepped up the agitation for the retention of the slot, claiming that the governor deserves a second term. Prominent APC and PDP chieftains from the zone are united by the clampour for power. They have been making consultations and mobilising various pressure groups to realise the objective. In fact, pro-Ahmed forces in the APC have also raised a delegation to discuss the issue with the Kwara APC leader, Senator Bukola Saraki. They believe that the former governor will be disposed to his second term ambition for two reasons. Saraki was in office for two terms.

Also, Ahmed has been his loyal and dependable ally. Indeed, the political leader had challenged his illustrious father, the late Waziri Olusola Saraki, to a duel in 2011 over the vexed issue of succession. While the old political warhorse threw his weight behind her beloved daughter, Senator Gbemisola Saraki, for the governorship, Dr. Bukola Saraki opted for Ahmed's candidature. At the historic election, Ahmed defeated Senator Gbemi.

However, the governor has some hurdles to cross. A party source said that, in 2011, when the former Finance Commissioner emerged as the candidate, the feeling in the PDP, which was the ruling party, was that he would spend one term. But, Ahmed's supporters have countered this claim, saying that he is qualified to seek re-election under the 1999 Constitution.

Last week, a source also hinted that the APC may approach the next governorship election in utter sensitivity to the reality on ground. The source, who is a legislator said that events in the PDP have influence the APC's projections.

"There is the feeling that the next PDP governorship candidate may come from Ilorin Emirate. If this is so, the APC may have to also brainstorm on the way forward. There are three factors that often shape the politics of Kwara. They are ethnicity, religion and poverty. All these are know by the political class," he added.

Another APC chieftain said that, if the PDP decides to zone its slot to Kwara Central, the option may also be explored by the APC. There are many promising APC politicians from the Central District. However, eyes are on the former Sports Minister, Bolaji Abdullahi, who recently joined the party, following his exit from the federal cabinet. Aspirants being projected by the PDP in Kwara Central include the legal luminary, Dele Belgore (SAN), a defector from the APC, and former Vice Chancellor of University of Ilorin and Chairman of Federal Character Commission, Prof. Abdulraman Shuaib Oba.

However, Ahmed's supporters are not threatened by the new calculations. Members of the House of Assembly from Kwara South have also thrown their weight behind the second term agenda of the governor. They are also wooing their counterparts from other districts to support the agenda. Recently, a group, Kwara South Consultative Forum, drummed support for Ahmed's candidature. The group described him as a trusted and tested administrator, a loyal party, and an achiever. At a press conference in Ilorin, the state capital, the group appealed to Saraki support the quest for second term. "The present administration has worked enough to sustain the continuity agenda of the Saraki Administration and it should be allowed to complete its programmes in the overall interest of the Kwara people,"it said.

Members of the group also pointed out that since Kwara Central has enjoyed the slot for two terms between 2003 and 2011, power should remain in Kwara South because what is good for the goose is good for the gander. During the recent Eid-el-Fitri in Ilorin, posters of the governor flooded the streets. They attracted worshippers as they passed through the roads to the Ilorin Praying Ground. A day before, some youths from Kwara South had pasted them on the walls. To demonstrate their commitment to the second term agenda, political office holders from the South have formed a lobby group. The Contact and Mobilisation Committee is headed by the Commissioner for Finance, Alhaji Demola Banu. Its mission is to commence enlightenment and mobilisation drive across seven local governments in the Kwara South.The councils are Isin, Ifelodun, Oyun, Offa, Irepodun, Ekiti and Oke-Ero.

Members of Banu Committee include commissioners, special advisers, senior special assistants, special assistants, liaison officers, and youths coordinators.

However, those clamouring for power shift to the Central District are also multiplying. A party source said that the leadership of the APC is not averse to these legitimate agitations. "The party has not stopped the agitators because the agitations are healthy. The zones are competing and their claims are valid.

Kwara Central politicians are making the claim that the district has a huge population. This is a factor in politics and elections. Kwara South people, including those in the APC and the PDP, are insisting on continuity, claiming that Kwara Central had enjoyed it for eight years. They said that the central District has been there before for 12 years. Between 1999 and 2003, the late Alhaji Muhammed Lawal from Kwara Central also served as governor. But, it is up to the parties to release nomination guidelines that will reflect these feelings," he said.

Senator Makanjuola Ajadi and Alhaji Jani Ibrahim, an engineer, are among prominent PDP chieftains from the South District. Although they also rooting for power retention in the zone, they have conflicting agenda. Ajadi, the Presidential Adviser on National Assembly Matters is a governorship aspirant. He has said that the slot should remain in the South in the spirit of equity, fairness and justice.

However, Ajadi and Jani wants the PDP to produce the next governor from the zone.

Also, in the Kwara South APC, there is the feeling that, even after the zone has enjoyed the slot for another term, power should shift to Kwara North, which has not produced the governor since 1999. Competent sources said that Kwara South leaders have not been reaching out to their counterparts in the North. If they have adopted the collaborative approach, they would have arrived at an agreement on zoning and power shift. "If Kwara North supports Kwara South in 2015, the zone will reciprocate in 2019. This inter-zonal cooperation is also normal in politics," added the source.

However, leaders of the APC and PDP in the North District have a separate agenda for 2015, They want the slot to be zoned to the area. But, unlike their counterparts in the South and Central districts, they are not properly coordinated.

Kwara South leaders have been hiding under the on-going voter's registration sensitisation to drum support for the governor's second term. The Banu Committee has taken the second term campaign to many councils, particularly Ajase-Ipo and Offa. As they enjoined the people to register to get permanent voters' card, they also project the achievements of the governor as the basis for continuity beyond next year. They explained to the people that Ahmed will continue to build on the legacies of his leader, Senator Saraki.

In reaction, PDP and APC leaders from the North and Central have called on their party leadership to call the agitators from the South to order. According to them, the agitations are divisive and essentially destabilising. The grouse of APC chieftains from the two zones is that their colleagues from the South have not carried them along in their struggle, despite the fact that they belong to the same party and they have been working with the same governor.

A chieftain of the APC maintained that the emergence of the governorship candidate will depend on the prevailing situation during the primaries. He said, since the PDP is scheming to unseat the APC, this factor has to be taken into consideration as the ruling party prepares for primaries.

"When the time comes, stakeholders will brainstorm and take a collective decision", he said.