For keen followers of Kwara politics, it is difficult to dismiss the influence of the Saraki dynasty. Since 1999, the state’s political pendulum always swings wherever the Sarakis dictate. In 2003, the then All Nigerian Peoples Party (ANPP) lost the state to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) at the nudging of the late Dr. Olusola Saraki, the progenitor of the Saraki dynasty, even though it had the clear advantage of incumbency as the then governor, Mohammed Lawal, was elected on the platform of ANPP.

Late last year, PDP lost the state to the rival All Progressives Congress (APC) when Senator Bukola Saraki, a scion of the Saraki dynasty, defected with all his followers from the party. This has put PDP in a position to test its famed resilience ahead of the 2015 general election.

In this regard, PDP is retooling its structure to reclaim the state. It commenced the reengineering process a few weeks ago when it held its congress to elect new officials to pilot the affairs of the party. In the wake of the defection, the party had been left bare. An interim committee led by Chief Fred Edoja had been coordinating the affairs of the party. The congress thus served as an opportunity to move beyond the setback caused by the defection. It signaled the realignment of political forces in the state with many of those who were opposed to Saraki when he was the PDP leader moving into the PDP fold.

The list includes Dele Belgore, the former ACN gubernatorial candidate; Gbemi Saraki, a former senator and ex-gubernatorial candidate of the ACPN; Revd. Bunmi Olusona, former interim chairman of APC in the state; Bilikis Gambari, Senatorial candidate for CPC in Kwara Central, and many others. All the forces, which opposed Saraki in the 2011 general elections, have teamed up in the PDP with the natural support of the PDP-led federal government.

The Congress produced Akogun Iyiola Oyedepo as chairman. Oyedepo was a former chief whip of the State House of Assembly and notable critic of the Saraki hegemony. Other officials that were elected include, Chief Gbenle Adeyemi, Vice Chairman (South), Julius Ore, Assistant Treasurer, who were returned unopposed.

The rest are Bolaji Raji, Alhaji Nma Mohammed and Abiola Moshood who were elected as Assistant Secretaries for South, North and Central respectively. Nimota Oba-Suleiman was elected Women Leader; Segun Olawoyin became Youth leader while the post of Legal Adviser went to Musa Audu. Chief Rex Olawoye clinched the position of Publicity Secretary by flooring his rival for the post, a former Chief Press Secretary to Senator Bukola Saraki, Tajudeen Kareem, while Babajide Stevens became the Financial Secretary.

Although the congress was fraught with wrangling from sections of the party, the party seems to have gotten over it and is looking at how to reposition itself to regain the governorship seat. An Ilorin-based political analyst, Sola Are, believes that of all the states that the PDP lost last year, Kwara is about the surest it would regain in the next gubernatorial election.

“I think it was a tactical mistake by the former leader of the PDP, Saraki to leave the party. With his exit all his known and unknown enemies have teamed up against him. They are all in PDP,” Are posited.

But beyond the forging of a common front by all the politicians opposed to Saraki on the PDP platform, the party is working on strategy that could prove to be a political masterstroke. The strategy is hinged on fielding an Ilorin indigene as its gubernatorial candidate in the 2015. That appears to be the reasoning for electing Oyedepo, a Kwara South person as its Chairman. This appears to be a well- planned strategy as all the leading candidates that vied for the chairmanship of the Kwara PDP were either from the South or North, indicating that it was a strategic move to free the party to field a candidate from Kwara Central as its gubernatorial candidate.

The wisdom in this strategy is that Kwara Central has the largest population in the state. According to the 2006 census, the estimated population of Kwara is about 2.3 million. Of this, the five local governments that make up the Ilorin Emirate – Ilorin West, Ilorin East, Ilorin South, Asa and Moro – make up about half of the population, while the other 11 LGAs share the rest. In every election cycle, it is the votes from the Ilorin Emirate that often decide who becomes the governor of the state. This trend would likely continue in 2015.

The PDP seems to be aware of this and apparently plotting to leverage on the yearnings of the Ilorin Emirate for a governor from their zone. The current governor, Abdulfatah Ahmed is from Kwara South, one of the least populated areas of the state. Even more troubling for the APC, Governor Ahmed is believed not to have performed well. Edoja, the former interim Chairman of the PDP, referred to this recently when he described the governor as one of the worst in the country who was multiplying the misery of the people of the state.

He specifically condemned the governor for the penchant for bonds, which has no impact on the lives of the people. “It is obvious that the state under the leadership of APC chieftains cannot achieve anything meaningful without approaching either money or capital markets for bonds which will eventually spread on the periods that will even out-live them in government.

The APC government that has earlier applied for a N30 billion loan as reflected in its 2014 budget proposal, has also sought for additional N23 billion loan after it has succeeded in borrowing the sum of N 150 million for Kwara Express through Harmony Holdings Limited even though, it failed to account for the over N540 million income of the Corporation,” he said.

But beyond the politicking, the general view in the state is that the Ahmed government has not done very well. The government has severally complained of dwindling allocations from the federal government for its dire financial strait. Analysts like Are, however, believe that the governor’s explanation is not tenable. According to him, Kwara has never been one of the top earners from federal allocations, yet past Governors, especially the Saraki administration did exceptionally well.

“I believe with the creative and innovative management of our resources, this government could have achieved more. Now, the level of poverty in the state is too high. The people are suffering,” he said.

Analysts believe that the problem of Governor Ahmed goes beyond performance. “His other main challenge is that of patronage. Kwara is a place where the culture of political patronage is entrenched. We have not seen much of this from this governor. All he complains about is that there is no money. So apart from the few elite benefitting from the government, a lot of people, especially from Ilorin Emirate, feel shut out.”

The PDP, aware of the many complaints by the people against the APC-led administration of Gov. Ahmed, appears set to take advantage of it to win the hearts of the Kwara electorate. This has given the party much confidence which reflects in its recent public statements. After the recent congress of the party, its new chairman, Oyedepo, boasted that APC should get ready to quit the Government House.

“PDP will regain its stolen mandate from the All Progressives Congress in all elections through free, fair and credible elections”, he said, adding: “I will sensitize the people about their right to good governance. I will involve our farmers, artisans, youths, civil servants and women in the struggle to reclaim the state.”

Other PDP leaders in the state also seem to have developed springs in their steps as they walk confidently because of what they perceive as the weaknesses of the rival APC  in relation to the strength of their party which include federal support, strategic zoning of the gubernatorial ticket to Kwara Central and the perceived non-performance of the incumbent governor.

How well the political influence of the Saraki dynasty will serve the APC in the coming election against a resilient and strategically focused PDP is a matter that only time would reveal.