Political developments in the Kwara – the ‘State of Harmony,’ -  in recent times give indication that the 2015 general elections will not only be interesting, but may not be a walkover for the ruling party.

At the moment, the political gladiators have started assembling their ‘arsenal’ in the bid to control the soul of the state. One year after the demise of the strongman of Kwara politics, Dr. Olusola Saraki, political events in the 43 year-old state have changed significantly.

During his life time, Saraki was the kingmaker in the state and exercised political authority for about four decades. Although his leadership encountered stiff opposition and resistance at different times, the former Senate leader defeated his opponents all the same, with convincing understanding of their weaknesses, opportunities he tapped so well  by providing the needs of his people, majority of them women.

Although the late Waziri of Ilorin made his eldest son and scion of the Saraki dynasty – Dr. Bukola Saraki, who was governor for 8 years – his successor, Bukola’s ability to continually earn the loyalty of Oloye’s followers has not proven to match his dad’s.

Since the demise of his father, the political situation in Kwara has changed tremendously even though Bukola has not been leaving any stone unturned to continously oil the machinary of the political dynasty.

A cross-section of Oloye’s political apostles and acolytes such as those who now pitch their tent with the President Goodluck Jonathan’s faction of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has vowed not to “serve father and son.” For them, Bukola has not got what it takes to wear the big shoes left behind by his father.

Thus, events in the political arena of the state in the last one year have proved that all may not be well with the famed Saraki political dynasty as Bukola seems not to be enjoying the support expected from his father’s loyalists, let alone the leadership of the whole state.

Interestingly, his siblings -  Senator Gbemisola Saraki-Fowora and Laolu – appear not to be operating on the same frequency with their elder brother. While Bukola led his supporters out of the PDP, the duo of Gbemisola and his younger brother remain in the party.

Among those who vowed not to recognise Bukola’s leadership of the politics of the state are his kinsmen from the Ilorin Emirate. They include co-contestant in the senatorial primaries, Alhaji L. A. K. Jimoh; Chairman, Federal Character Commission (FCC) and former Vice Chancellor, University of Ilorin, Prof. Shuaib Oba Abdulraheem; Presidential aspirant under the defunct National Republican Convection (NRC) and Tafida of Ilorin, Dr. Amuda Aluko; Governorship candidate of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) in 2011, Mohammed Dele Belgore, (SAN); Dr. Sa’ad Omoiya and Mr. Kunle Sulyman.

Those who neither followed Saraki to the PDP nor bowed to his leadership from Kwara South and Kwara North include his deputy while in office, Chief Joel Ogundeji; his colleague in the upper legislative chamber Senate third term Senator, Simeon Sule Ajibola; his predecessor, Senator Suleiman Makanjuola Ajadi; state governorship candidate of the Accord Party in 2007, Col. Theophilus Bamigboye (rtd); Kwara South senatorial candidate of the Allied Congress Party of Nigeria (ACPN), Yisa Lola Ashiru; former chairman, Ifelodun Local Government Council of the state, Chief Rex Olawoye; and former state

Commissioner for Information under Bukola’s regime and erstwhile National President of National Youth Council of Nigeria, Mr. Ben Duntoye.

Others are former Minister of Sports and one-time Speaker, Kwara State House of Assembly, Hon. Isa Bio Ibrahim; former member, House of Representatives, Engr. Yinusa Yahaya and former state Commissioner for Works and Transport, Engr. Yinusa Afolabi, among others.

A political pundit who did not want his name in print, opined that the emergence of the late Oloye as a political leader in the state was a collective decision of majority of Kwara people and not self-appointed as done by his successor and son.

“The late Saraki lived for his people, particularly the down-trodden. It was Ilorin people that unanimously chose Baba Saraki as their leader; he didn’t impose himself on the people; he loved his followers to a fault and the people reciprocated that with their unalloyed support and loyalty. Above all, his philanthropy was unparallel; he was humble and gave all the people around him – no matter their creed or religion – a sense of belonging,” he maintained.

This school of thought contends that Bukola does not have the qualities of his father. To them, it is completely absurd to serve a father and still serve his son.

Notwithstanding the opposition, Bukola emerged as the party leader with an assurance to the people that the Saraki family would continue to ensure their wellbeing as done by his father during his lifetime.

Despite threats to Bukola’s leadership across the three senatorial districts of the state, the ‘Emerging Tiger’ also enjoys unalloyed supports of majority of the people including those at the grassroots level. For instance, Saraki adopted a consensus arrangement in his former party through which all the newly elected 15 local government chairmen in the state emerged.

The workability of the consensus arrangement clearly manifested in the victory recorded by the PDP in the October 26, council polls last year. The victory, coupled with the reclaiming of Offa, the only council in the state hitherto under the control of the opposition, made the Leader – as Bukola is fondly called – to be in total control of the state.

The former governor said the outcome of the election confirmed “the promises of the people that they truly believe and have confidence in our leadership and in our government. The people have spoken on where they belong, and who they are with.”

If the array of important personalities that attended the one-year remembrance prayer for the late Waziri of Ilorin is anything to go by, Bukola has not only emerged as the political leader of the state, but close to a national figure in the political equation of the country.

Bukola declared that the political structure left behind by his father “is faring well. Though the vacuum created by the demise of my father has been very difficult to fill, the family is doing its best to sustain his legacies.”

No doubt, his role in the formation of the new PDP which recently pitched its tent with the All Progressives Congress (APC) is a pointer to the fact that Bukola is a force to reckon with in the scheme of things not only in the State of Harmony, but in the country     generally.

Bukola is also one of the leading lights of the defunct ‘new PDP’. Little wonder Alhaji Kawu Baraje, former acting national chairman of the PDP as well as Governor Abdulfatah Ahmed, and all the six members of the House of Representatives from the state; Senator Shaaba Lafiagi, the 16 local government chairmen and their councilors; 20 of the 22 former PDP members in the state House of Assembly, among others, dumped the PDP for the APC.

Unarguably, Bukola would be the leader of the APC in the state, going by the deal he struck with the APC national leaders. Apparently confirming his predecessor’s leadership position, Governor Ahmed told the national leaders of the APC who came to the state last year to woo him and the leadership of the PDP, that it was only Bukola, the leader of the party, who could take a decision on their request based on their allegiance and loyalty to the Saraki political dynasty.

Current political events in the state since the wedlock between the APC and the new PDP in the state are not without attendant hiccups. Majority of the old members of the APC who were aggrieved lamented that they were not carried along in the scheme of things, accusing their national leaders of sideling them by giving preferential treatment to the newcomers in the party.

They contended that “although we are not objecting to Bukola and his people coming into the party, we will never accept the handing over of the party structure to him as being contemplated by the national leaders.” They described Bukola and his people as strangers being offered shelter by the APC and should not dictate the terms to those they met on ground.

The state interim chairman of the party, Rev. Bunmi Olusona, warned of dire consequences to the party should the national leadership dare them and go ahead with the arrangement.

This warning was corroborated by the Kwara Conscience, a group which claimed to be the most formidable within the APC in the state in a communiqué jointly signed by Elder Kayode Ajiboye, Kwara South; Oloyin Lateef Adebayo, Kwara Central and Princess Fatimoh Mahmud, Kwara North.

It stated: “We vehemently opposed the handing over of APC structure to the defecting PDP as led by Governor Abdulfatah Ahmed. We don’t detest the PDP as a political party but those that have just defected from the party.”

Also addressing his teeming supporters recently in Ilorin, Mohammed Dele Belgore, SAN, told them that he was still committed to the APC and would not dump the party, saying “we shall continue to review the situation as we go along.”

He condemned the ways and manner the political marriage was consummated with the defunct new PDP members without stakeholders’ inputs “which in particular did not take into consideration the interests of those who laboured and toiled to nurture the APC to an enviable height in the state.”

But the former governor assured that things would be sorted out amicably among all the stakeholders in the APC with a view to ensuring that the APC controls the state in the next political dispensation.

From all indications, some pioneer members of the APC who still felt short- changed may be preparing their exit from the party even as it is being rumoured that they may cross carpet to the PDP.

If the party succeeds in putting its house in order before the February 2015 general election, the political pendulum is likely to swing towards the APC. If not, the situation may be dicey and hazy for correct political permutation.