The national leadership of the opposition All Progressive Congress (APC) must be basking in the euphoria of  the success of its aggressive recruitment campaign which saw the defection of five out of the seven aggrieved  governors of the ruling PDP into their fold.  But as the APC celebrate this political feat, the PDP is battling with the question of who fills in the leadership vacuum created by its defecting governors. The answer to this question may not be far-fetched as President Jonathan’s loyalists are already positioning themselves to take over the PDP leadership and structures in the affected states. Our correspondents provide the situation report in Kano, Adamawa, Kwara, Rivers and Sokoto states.

In Kwara, the defection of new PDP led by former Governor Bukola Saraki as well as Governor Abdulfatah Ahmed into APC has generated mixed feelings in the state. The development has added another chapter to the complex politics of Kwara state which was ruled for over four decades by Dr. Olusola Saraki, the late strongman of the state that had the unprecedented record of installing four civilian governors that the state ever produced until 2011.

Many politicians who became relevant in the politics of Kwara state had in one way or the other regaled in the dynasty and used the platform to advance their political career. With the death of Saraki on November 14, 2012, many analysts and ardent watchers of political events in the state had predicted that the politics would never be the same again.

Given the peculiarity of the state politics, not many people believed the impending move to join the APC would come to fruition until the announcement was made, thereby disproving the permutations of analysts who considered APC in the state a no-go area for the Sarakites.

Members of the pro-Jonathan group include the Chairman of Federal Character Commission (FCC), Professor Oba Abdulraheem, Senator Simeon Ajibola representing Kwara South, former Minister of Transport and Sport, Alhaji Bio Ibrahim, pioneer PDP chairman in the state, Barrister Kunle Sulyman, former Senator Salman Ajadi (1999-2003), Senator Haliru Kaiama, former Presidential candidate of National Transformation Party (NTP), Chief John Dara, Special Adviser to the President on Ethics and Values, Mrs. Sarah Jibril, former House of Representatives member, Hon. Zulukarnaini Edun, former House of Representatives member, Alhaji Ayinla Folorunsho, a member of the House of Assembly, among others.

Most of these politicians were once loyalists and supporters of late Saraki and have also worked with Bukola before they parted ways. For instance the rift between Saraki and Abdulraheem who hail from the same Ajikobi ward in Ilorin West was said to have widened the gulf in the political dynasty.  Abdulraheem who has completed his five year tenure as FCC chairman was re-nominated by President Jonathan against the wish of Saraki who preferred the position to be zoned to Kwara North. The controversy still lingers as Abdulraheem awaits his confirmation in the Senate. 

Analysts say the defection of Governor Ahmed and Saraki to APC poses serious threat to Jonathan’s much speculated 2015 ambition given the huge followership behind Saraki

The October 26 local government election won by the PDP candidates is another testament of the influence of Saraki. With the machineries of government at Saraki’s disposal vis-a-viz the local government chairmen who won the primaries through Saraki’s endorsement, it would be a herculean task for the mainstream PDP to defeat the APC.  

Former Chairman of new PDP, Hon. Isola Balogun-Fulani who addressed a rally at the PDP secretariat in Ilorin declared that with their defection to APC, PDP is dead in Kwara state. 

“According to tradition, we don’t have any party as a must. It is where our leaders go that we are going, we are Sarakites and we have our structures. Anywhere he moves to, we move there en-masse. All the executives of the wards, local governments and the state would move en-masse to the party that our leader said they have merged with.

“We have spoken the mind of everybody in Kwara state especially those in PDP. Like I told you we are Sarakites and if our leader says he is no more in PDP, that is the end of PDP in Kwara State and it is dead. I will tell you that we believe what our leaders have done and we are APC as at now. PDP is dead in Kwara state”, he said. 

 However, an elder of PDP in the state, Alhaji Oba Ajara organized a rally to, according to him, “correct the misinformation that PDP is dead.”  Ajara who told Sunday Trust that the party remains very strong as always said: “We are asking other people like Gbemi too to come and remain in the party. We told the world that we remain in PDP because we are founding members of PDP and majority of Kwarans do not follow them to APC as they want the world to believe. So we are strongly in support of PDP and the national leadership.”

In Sokoto , pundits see  the state deputy governor ,Mukhtari Shagari ,Senator Abubakar Umar Gada ,Yusuf Suleiman as among key politicians who will hold the structures of PDP after the exit of governor Wamakko. Many think Shagari may not likely move to APC with governor Wamakko even as observers believe he will remain in the PDP and work to be the party’s governorship flag bearer.

Barrister Muktari Shagari is one of those presumed to be nursing the ambition to contest in the state governorship polls come 2015. Over the years, he had been nursing the same ambition to govern the state having contested in the 2003 PDP governorship primaries but was unsuccessful.

He was also the PDP governorship flag bearer for the 2007 polls in the state until Alhaji Aliyu Magatakarda Wamakko, who was the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) Sokoto governorship candidate, decamped to the PDP before that election. Shagari had to surrender his ticket to Wamakko and run as his deputy. Some claim that there was an agreement at that time to the effect that Shagari would have the PDP ticket after Wamakko but there had been nothing suggesting such even though Shagari is believed to have been very loyal to his boss. There are no indications that he was a favoured candidate of the Governor.

With Wamakko out of the PDP, some are of the opinion that the party will give Shagari the chance to be the governorship candidate. Senator Gada, political adviser to the PDP National Chairman, is seen to be emboldened by the reported support he is supposedly enjoying from  President Jonathan who is  said to be  his longtime friend. Though PDP in Sokoto under governor Wamakko was noted to have control of all elective positions in the state including the Senatorial seats, House of representative, State Assembly, local government chairmanship, it was strongly thought that President Jonathan would use federal might to tilt the playing ground In favour of Gada particularly as he has a lot of scores to settle with Wamakko.

Gada first entered into politics in 2003, contesting as a running mate to Senator Abdallah Wali but they were defeated by the then governor Attahiru Dalhatu Bafarawa.  Under the ANPP/PDP arrangement with the coming of Wamakko, Sokoto-East Senatorial seat was allocated to old members of PDP and Gada subsequently clinched the seat in 2007.

However, he is one of those described as Abuja politicians and all along he has been living outside the state and this many negatively impact on his grassroots support. It would be recalled that his bid to return to the senate fell flat as he was defeated by his opponent. Some observers say it does not necessarily suggest that because he failed in the bid to return to the senate, he could not draw support from those that are discontented within the party for whatever reason and possibly some hard-core “old PDP” who still have axe to grind with Wamakko.

Former minister of Sport, Alhaji Yusuf Sulaiman, parted ways with Wamakko in the wake of 2011 gubernatorial re-run election in the state when he entered the race for the party ticket. Sulaiman who also aligned himself with the Abuja based Political opponents of Wamakko is assumed by some to be a favorite of President Jonathan who may also be working to reposition the PDP in the state in favour of Jonathan’s 2015 ambition. But many say he needs to build a broad grassroots support base which they say is lacking for now.