The G7, as the group of seven PDP governors who staged a walk-out in protest at the special national convention of the party in August was then called, was canvassing reform and change in PDP, holding meetings and discussing with prominent leaders and generally strategising. But the differences in the group of seven and in their circumstances within the PDP fold have always been there. The cleavages have always been there and sharp too. So when only five of the seven governors eventually left PDP for APC two weeks ago, I was not surprised to say the least. Even the governors that defected to APC knew along the line that the other two won’t go with them to the opposition party. Their respective situations and appreciation of those situations seem different, which is why G7 has been further broken down into G5 and G2 as it were.

Take for instance Jigawa State Governor Sule Lamido who seems sufficiently angered by the situation of things in PDP. Lamido wants power to return to the North in 2015 and has not hidden the fact that he wants to run for presidency in 2015 as well. President Jonathan is contesting for re-election and Lamido should know that with Jonathan’s control of the levers of power in PDP, he stands no chance against the president during the party’s primaries.

But the Jigawa governor’s anger against the PDP hierarchy would not make him leave the party he helped found along with others. As he said during an interview in Dutse last week, he and a few others started what later metamorphosed into PDP as G9, G18 and G 34. He said he would not abandon that platform for latter-day politicians who now hold the party strings. So he would continue to fight within the party hoping that change would come. Governor Babangida Aliyu of Niger, who led the G7, can continue to claim from now till tomorrow, as he did last Thursday, that the idea of the G7 formation was to reform the party and not to defect to the opposition party as his five other colleagues have done. How do you reform a party like PDP when you are not in control of the party machinery in Abuja or hold the ace in Aso Rock? The truth, as I see it, is he seems unsure of what post-PDP life may hold for him. But at present, though in the twilight of his reign as governor of the state, Aliyu is still in firm control of the PDP machinery in his state.

But Lamido and Aliyu’s circumstances are different from those of Rotimi Amaechi (Rivers), Murtala Nyako (Adamawa) and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso (Kano), who defected to APC along with Aliyu Wamakko (Sokoto) and Abdulfatah Ahmed (Kwara). With the party structures in their three states virtually yanked off from the grips of the governors, they had been presented with a fait accompli and must make their moves; hence their defection. Wamakko is said to be firmly on the ground in Sokoto and he is no fan of Abuja. He can also not be said to have truly integrated himself into PDP. Ahmed, on the other hand, is simply doing the bidding of his political godfather, former Kwara governor, Senator Bukola Saraki.

Am I saying the G5 is right and G2 wrong? No, there is nothing like being right or wrong in this matter. I think the state gladiators involved are simply assessing their situations and taking their decisions to deal with those situations in line with their interests. But two quick points will suffice here. One, President Jonathan and his camp who had cooled down on the reconciliation talks with the G7 governors, sensing they had taken the upper hand in the matter, quickly revved the engine and put the talks back on track following the defection of the five governors. Though PDP National Publicity Secretary Olisa Metuh said the party would talk to the five governors and bring them back to PDP fold, I think those five governors are out of PDP for good, as I doubt if they would retrace their steps and head back to the ruling party soon. But as for Lamido and Aliyu, who are also potential contestants for the presidency in 2015, having all worked out on the president along with other five governors at the PDP special national convention in Abuja in August and having called Jonathan all kinds of names for that matter, can Aso Rock trust them, whether they defect or don’t defect? It’s all politics you might say, but recall that Jonathan too, like Obasanjo, hardly forgive and forget.

The other point is I think going by the five governors’ defection, the APC can seize the present momentum to galvanise the party. How can the party do this? Put in a place a true system that treats both the founders of APC and the joiners from New PDP as equals, a system that embraces internal democracy in all ramifications, particularly the choice of its presidential candidate. If it does that, the APC may become a credible alternative to PDP and the five PDP governors and other leaders that joined the opposition party would not have acted in vain. But I see a problem ahead for the APC and it’s in respect of the integration of structures between the APC and New PDP elements. If the party comes out of this without much rancour, then it may be smooth sailing for APC.