There is no gainsaying the fact that Kwara State is one of the toughest states in the country today as far as 2003 general elections is concerned.

Though, violence occurs in other states but that of Kwara is exceptional.

Nonetheless, as volatile as Kwara politics is, scores of people or candidates are still out to slug it out with one another for the various elective posts. As the election draws nearer on daily basis, each of these candidates intensifies his campaigns and strategies to outwit others.

The big question, however, is how many of these candidates are really serious? The fact still remains that some of them are contenders while some are pretenders.

Out of these, about thirteen of the 30 political parties succeeded in fielding candidates for the various elective positions in Kwara State.

But only the first generation ones like the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Alliance for Democracy (AD) are making waves. Aside these three, the United Nigeria Peoples Party (UNDP) and the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) are also struggling for attention.

Governorship elections

Of all the posts in the state, this is the most dreaded. The battle is between the incumbent governor, Alhaji Mohammed Lawal (ANPP), Dr. Bukola Saraki (PDP) and Alhaji Lai Mohammed (AD). However, there are other candidates like Abubakar Ishola (APGA), Omotosho Bamidele (NAC), Oyeyiola Lasisi (LDPN), Samuel Sunday (NCP), Gbenga Olawepo (NDP) and Nurudeen Mohammed (UNPP).

Of all these candidates in the state, the candidature of that of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Dr. Bukola Saraki was shrouded in controversy.

Some earlier PDP aspirants like John Dara, Alhaji Yekeen Alabi, Alhaji Shaaba Lafiaji and Alhaji Kolawole Jimoh were not happy with how some powerful elements within the party allegedly imposed Saraki on them. This led to serious divisions in the party and in order to show their annoyance. The aggrieved candidates who alleged that the primary of the PDP was “bought” wrote petitions to both the INEC and the party’s headquarters. Till now, the problem remains unsolved and this has polarised the party.

Although, nobody is sure yet of what is going to happen. The incumbent governor, Alhaji Mohammed Lawal is reeling under the effect of the face-off with his erstwhile godfather, Dr. Olusola Saraki. But unlike PDP Lawal’s All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) remains undivided. There are three senators representing Kwara State at the National Assembly and out of these, two are Lawal’s closest confidants. The two senators, Dr. Ishaq Salman and Makanjuola Agaji have instructed their supporters from their constituencies to support Lawal.

Also, virtually all the traditional rulers in the state have declared their support for the incumbent governor. The governor renovated the palaces of all the first class chiefs and gave them Mercedes Benz cars each while their remunerations were also increased.

Dr. Bukola Saraki of the PDP may be poised for an upset. Even though he is known to be a businessman and a successful banker, he has just joined politics. Nevertheless, his father, Dr. Olusola Saraki is all out to secure the Government House for him by all means.

As bright as his chance would have been, the two major obstacles on his way is the feud between Lawal and Saraki, which has divided Ilorin and Kwara State as a whole for the first time.

Secondly, the intra-party scuffle in PDP has made his candidature controversial. Even though he has his own people in the party, the polarisation is working against him. The aggrieved candidates who believed that Bukola secured the party’s ticket in a dubious way have vowed that their supporters would not vote for him. They threatened to form alliance with his opponents to defeat him.

As for Lai Mohammed, the AD candidate is set to be the “Otedola” of Kwara State. The term Otedola emanated from Lagos State during the aborted Babanginda transition, when protest votes were cast for the candidate of National Republican Party (NRC) though Social Democratic Party (SDP) was the favourite party. He may ride on the crest of the Lawal-Saraki’s face-off to the Government House. Political watchers said he has the chance if he knows his onions. In fact he is already seen as the dark horse in the race.

Senatorial:

The three senatorial districts are: Kwara North, Kwara South and Kwara Central. According to INEC’s record, eight parties have fielded candidates for the three districts. The parties are PDP, ANPP, AD, UNPP; Progressive Action Congress (PAC), NDP; Nigerian Peoples Congress (NPC) and APGA.

Most of the candidates fielded by AD, PDP and ANPP are experienced and this is expected to boost their chances. For example, in Kwara South, Senator Sulaiman Ajadi (ANPP) has been there since 1999. This would give him an edge over others. Also, Gbemisola Fowora (PD) and Ishaq Salman (ANPP) have also held the post since 1999 and would have an edge over others.

House of Representatives:

There are six federal constituencies namely: Baruten/Kaiama; Edu/Moro/Patigi; Ekiti/Isin/Irepodun/Oke-Ero; Ilorin East/Ilorin South; Ilorin West/Asa; Ifelodun/Offa/Oyun.

The AD, PDP and ANPP paraded tested hands. The battles in these constituencies are strictly between the candidates of the three parties. Nobody can really predict where the pendulum will swing.