With the defection of five governors elected under the platform of PDP to the APC, the opposition appears set to sack the former from the presidency, Abuja. But a critical study of the scenario faults that permutation writes BAYO OLADEJI

Since 1960 when the yoke of the colonial masters was destroyed, the opposition has never had it so sweet and so glorious. The opposition, under the aegis of the All Progressive Congress (APC) is expanding its coast while the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) is groaning and lamenting as it suffers strident exodus of its chieftains, especially  the recent defection of five of its 22 governors.

Unarguably, this is not the best of time for the Presidency and the PDP as the umbrella seems to have lost its strength under a heavy downpour, besides having most of its members in disarray, the party as it looks is no doubt on its darker side. Members now seems to be watching helplessly how its leadership engages in the war of attrition and make feeble attempt to stitch the tearing umbrella.

With the defection of Governors Rabiu Kwankwaso of Kano, Aliyu Wamakko of Sokoto, Murtala Nyako of Adamawa, Abdulfatah Ahmed of Kwara and Rotimi Amaechi of Rivers to the APC, to borrow from the lexicon of the spokesman of the opposition, Lai Mohammed, “Nigeria’s political landscape can no longer be the shame”.

Now the APC has 16 governors while the PDP has 17 and out of these, two of them, Babangida Aliyu of Niger and Sule Lamido of Jigawa states are more of outside than of inside. A political pundit recently said “we are now entering a phase in our democracy where the ruling party and the opposition are almost evenly matched, at least on paper”.
Talk of the spread, PDP can no longer boast that it is the only party with the national spread and all empty boast by some of its chieftains that the party would rule Nigeria for ever seems to have gone with the wind.

Another argument in favour of the opposition is the registered voter configuration. As of now, three leading states, Lagos, Rivers (at least on paper) and Kano are all in the kitty of the APC. A newspaper recently came up with a publication that also corroborates this thought.

“With a combined voting strength of 35, 096, 654, the APC states constitute 51.79% of the country’s total voting population of 67, 764, 195, according to the Independent National Electoral Commission’s voter register released in 2011. This is against the 29, 350, 346 voters in the PDP states, representing 43.31% of the national voter population.
“Even with the heavy possibility of the All Progressives Grand Alliance ( APGA) lone state, with a voter population of 1, 758, 220, being 2.59% of the national voting population, and Labour Party’s equally one state, with voting strength of 1, 558, 975, being 2. 30% of the national total aligning with PDP, the current ruling party will still be trailing the APC, given the duo’s percentages- 51.79% - 48.2%”, the paper reported.

But some political analysts are fast to posit that the defection of the five or even seven to APC does not translate to the shifting of voting strength from the PDP to the APC. They argue that some of these governors would create more problems for their new party very soon. This school of thought would tell those who care to listen that Amaechi cannot take away Rivers voters away from the likes of former governor, Peter Odili, the two former deputy speakers of House of Representatives, all former Ministers who served the Obasanjo administration.

They also said the same thing of Nyako in Adamawa State where the embattled PDP National Chairman, Bamanga Tukur hails from. Tukur has the backing of political giants such as Senator Jubril Aminu, Senator Jonathan Zwingina, Senator Grace Bent, Ambassador Hassan Adamu (Wakilin Adamawa) and a host of others.

There is no doubt of serious contention in the states, where the governors defected. Of the contentious issues remains the claim that the structures cannot just be allocated to the defectors, because they are coming in as governors.

Many APC members are already contending that, having worked to build the structures in the states, the PDP governors, who did everything to undermine them, cannot just inherit the structure.

In the case of Kwara, there are more fundamental issues. The gulf in the ranks of the political family of Senator Olusola Saraki, the late strongman of Kwara politics, is growing further. The defection indicates that the core loyalists of the late Saraki will remain in the PDP, while loyalists of Senator Bukola Saraki, are joining him on the APC train. It was learnt that Senator Bukola’s sister and his predecessor in the Senate, Senator Gbemi Saraki, is also staying put in PDP. The likes of Senator Simeon Ajibola (Kwara South), and former Minister of Transport, Hon. Mohammed Isa Bio, are also staying put in the party. In the emerging scenario, the state could just be divided down the line, if the political figures stick to their guns.

Besides, it was learnt that if APC is unable to manage the discontent being generated by the decision to hand over the structures to the defecting PDP governors, followers of people like Belgore could decide to pitch their tent with PDP.

In Kano, PDP had taken care of any eventuality that may be thrown up by the defection long before the defection of Governor Rabiu Kwakwanso. The party  read in between line and as such put  in place a state executive committee that is loyal to the party in Abuja. It was learnt that Kwakwanso actually calculated that the party would not go ahead to replace the state chairman loyal to him in the heat of the G7 uprising, but the Alhaji Bamanga Tukur-led PDP effected the change in the executive on the strength of the fact that the tenure of the old executive had lapsed.

With the composition of the new executive, PDP appears on a solid ground, as none of the executive members is defecting with Kwakwanso.

But the situation in Kano is quite tricky. Besides the fact that there is no love lost between the leader of APC in Kano, former Governor Ibrahim Shekarau and the incumbent, Kwakwanso, there are also core areas whose political leanings are believed to be fixed in the state. Sources said that some constituencies, which have remained in either PDP or ANPP over the years, were not about to change, notwithstanding the political realignments.

Such a development was said to be responsible for the resignation of the state Commissioner for Education and a former state chairman of PDP from the Kwakwanso train, days before the announcement of the merger.

Already, loyalists of Shekarau were said to be uncomfortable with Kwakwanso’s kwakwansia philosophy in Kano and were not likely to adopt the red cap insignia of the Kwakwansia group. It was also understood that core loyalists of ANPP, now a party to the APC merger, had continued to loathe Kwakwanso’s men, and that many of them were fuelling the negative reports against the Kano governor in recent times.

Aside from that, the APC is already embroiled in a cold war between the old hands and the new brides. In Sokoto and Kano states, for example, former governors Attahiru Bafarawa and his Kano counterpart, Mallam Ibrahin Shekarau are asking the governors to steer clear of the party structure. The attempt made by the party to reconcile them through General Muhammadu Buhari has not yielded any fruit. Similar scenario is playing out in Adamawa and Kwara.

Not a few agreed that despite the defection of the aggrieved governors to APC, it is not yet uhuru, instead the journey has just begun. Some political watchers argue that whenever the APC holds its coming convention, where its national and local leadership would emerge could determine whether the defectors are assets or liabilities. And since some of the defectors are said to be nursing presidential ambition, the choice of the presidential candidate of the party could make or mar the chances of the party in the 2015 presidential poll.

Those who are already on ground are said to have been polarized into two camps: those who want General Buhari to run again and those who think otherwise. Then the culture of imposing candidates in all the old parties that merged to become APC is another time bomb ahead of the party.

However, despite all these odds, the APC appears growing stronger at the expense of the strife-torn PDP.