With less than nine months to the general election, the 2015 governorship election in Kwara State promises to spring unexpected surprises. Already several hypotheses are being formulated about whether or not incumbent Governor Abdulfatah Ahmed would secure a second term ticket. Daily Trust examines the factors that could work for and or against the governor.

Not until he was nominated as the then candidate of Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the state, many people did not know Governor Abdulfatah Ahmed. As a commissioner during the eight years tenure of former Governor Bukola Saraki, he maintained a relatively low profile. He was seen as a professional to the core and fitted perfectly to the Finance Ministry where he was deployed for over seven years before he was posted to the then newly created Ministry of Planning and Economic Development.

The banker-turned politician who hails from Share, Ifelodun Local Government Area of the state and worked closely with Saraki during the days of the Societe Generale Bank (SGB) was seen by analysts as a perfect successor who understood the administration and could continue from where it stopped.

Ahmed’s administration was subsequently described and incontrovertibly so, as a government of continuity as his loyalty to his boss is unwavering. He started by completing all the projects his boss could not complete. He, from time to time, defers to Saraki as leader of the then PDP in the state. Overtly and covertly, Ahmed acknowledged Saraki’s political leadership in the state.

His loyalty to the former governor who is now a senator representing Kwara Central in the National Assembly, remains unwavering more so as he moved to the All Progressives Congress (APC) with him in October last year, though he was elected on the PDP platform. 

But the question on the lips of most Kwarans, both the political, apolitical elites and observers of events in the state is whether Ahmed, despite his firm loyalty would secure a second term ticket under APC.

As it is now, the situation is unpredictable as the Kwara 2015 election has thrown up a lot of permutations and calculations as the D-day approaches. Already the political terrain has been abuzz with the recent defection of Saraki, Ahmed and their supporters to the APC. 

In a rare expression of might, the newly reorganised PDP in the state has dismissed Saraki’s cross-carpeting and vowed to end his political leadership come 2015. The recent congress of the party which produced Akogun Iyiola Oyedepo from Kwara South Senatorial district as new chairman of the party after the exit of Saraki has thrown up permutations that the next governorship candidate might emerge from Kwara Central senatorial district which ultimately decides the winner of any governorship election because of its voting population.

Daily Trust reliably gathered that the emergence of new PDP chair was premised on an internal zoning arrangement which would see the PDP candidate emerging from the Central zone with the likes of Senator Gbemi Saraki, Mr. Dele Belgore, SAN, Alhaji Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq and Professor Oba Abdulraheem on the card, with the intent of leveraging on the voting power in the emirate to actualize the party’s dream of dislodging the APC government. 

Sources say the decision on the next gubernatorial candidate of APC would be dependent on who the PDP presents as a candidate. 

If the agitation for power shift to the central is to be recognised however, the likes of former acting national chairman of PDP, Alhaji Kawu Baraje, the present Chief of Staff to the governor, Alhaji Mohammed Toyin Sanusi, Speaker of the House of Assembly, Barrister Rasaq Atunwa and the former Minister of Sports, Mallam Bolaji Abdullahi apparently comes to mind.

A reliable source within the party said, “One thing that is obvious and unambiguous is that all of these candidates are 100 per cent loyal to Saraki. They idolize him and accept him wholeheartedly as the political leader of the state. You will recall that Baraje left the PDP where he was once the national chairman apparently to do Saraki’s bidding. 

“Abdullahi (former Minister) on his own was comfortable leaving the federal cabinet to show his loyalty to his boss. Despite the prestige associated with that post, the perks and perquisites, Abdullahi did not ditch Saraki whom he holds in high regards and sees as a benefactor and so he feels he should not bite the finger that fed him”.

The present Chief of Staff on his part was Personal Assistant to late strongman of Kwara politics, Dr. Olusola Saraki and has worked closely with Bukola and they have a long-standing relationship. He is seen within the political family of APC as “a trusted Bukola boy” who could be trusted with such a coveted position with his loyalty intact. Also the loyalty of Mr. Atunwa who also vied for the governorship ticket in 2011 before he was prevailed upon to step down for Governor Ahmed, is not in doubt and he could as well be compensated this time around. 

Another possible APC candidate of Ilorin Emirate extraction is the chairman, House Committee on Justice, Dr. Ali Ahmad who represents Ilorin East/South Federal constituency in the House of Representatives. Ahmad is also a core loyalist of Saraki who is considered one of the intelligent minds surrounding the “godfather”. The Law teacher was one time Saraki’s Personal Assistant, Chief of Staff and Commissioner for Justice before he was elected to represent the constituency.   

But another source who is a key member of APC and spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the issue was of the view that Ahmed’s closeness to Saraki and his unalloyed loyalty to him might give him the ticket. He said, “As far as I am concerned, Ahmed has demonstrated ample loyalty and commitment to the APC under the leadership of Dr. Bukola Saraki and he might as well be rewarded for his steadfastness.”

When contacted on whether Ahmed would be seeking second term ticket, the Senior Special Assistant to the governor on Media and Communications, Dr. Muideen Akorede said the governor’s preoccupation is about delivering on governance and at the nick of time, he would make his intention known. 

He said, “The governor believes that is premature for now. He is focussed on delivering governance. At the appropriate time, that decision would be made public whether or not he would go for second term.”

Recently, the Freedom Group in the state rising from its sixth consultative meeting at Iwo Isin, Kwara state, alleged that the governor was making overtures to return to the PDP. The group in the communique issued at the end of the meeting said the intention of the governor and his godfather, Dr Bukola Saraki, “is to destabilize the PDP and neutralize any opposition to the APC in the coming elections”.

In a five-point resolution signed by its spokesman, Mallam Tajudeen Kareem, the group said it has “uncovered a grand conspiracy to perpetuate the hegemony of Saraki in Kwara politics by fielding Alhaji Ahmed in PDP and Alhaji Kawu Baraje in APC”.

But the governor in a statement by his press secretary, Alhaji Abdulwahab Oba, described the alleged overtures to return to PDP as “preposterous, baseless and an attempt to cause disaffection in the state”.

 The coast would definitely be clearer as electioneering commences. Will the pendulum swing in favour of Ahmed? Only time will tell.