The All Progressives Congress (APC) maintains a decisive lead over the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the races for the Kwara State governorship and all three senatorial districts ahead of the 2027 general elections, according to a recent public opinion survey conducted by NU Northstar Research.

The poll, executed across Kwara State's 16 local government areas and 193 electoral wards, projects a comfortable lead for the APC governorship candidate, Salihu Yakubu Danladi, over his main challenger, Bolakale Kawu of the PDP.

Among respondents who expressed a definitive voting preference, Danladi secured 63 percent support compared to 34 percent for Kawu, signaling a strong early advantage for the ruling party candidate.

The findings, released by NU Northstar's Head of Research, Ebuka Iloh, were based on comprehensive survey interviews conducted with 30,000 registered voters between September 2 and October 20, 2026.

Beyond the gubernatorial contest, the survey places APC candidates ahead of their PDP counterparts across Kwara Central, Kwara South, and Kwara North, pointing to a state-wide political edge for the governing party.

Across the broader electorate surveyed, Danladi recorded 43 percent overall support, while Kawu garnered 24 percent. However, 31 percent of respondents remained undecided or declined to reveal their preference. Zakari Mohammed of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) polled one percent, while Ridwan Apaokagi of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) recorded under one percent.

A regional breakdown of the governorship race indicates that Danladi leads across all three senatorial districts and all 16 local council areas.

His strongest showing emerged in Kwara North, where he captured 71 percent of decided voters against Kawu's 26 percent. In Kwara Central, the APC candidate polled 56 percent to the PDP candidate's 41 percent.

The contest was tightest in Ilorin West - Kawu's home local government area - where Danladi registered a narrow 51 percent to 46 percent lead.

Despite the APC's broad advantage, researchers identified 58 wards as balanced too closely to call, though Danladi retained clear leads in 135 wards.

The research indicates that the eventual outcome of the governorship election may hinge on how uncommitted voters align before election day.

Kwara South recorded the highest concentration of unaligned voters, with 43 percent undecided, compared to 28 percent in Kwara Central and 24 percent in Kwara North. All six local government areas where undecided respondents surpassed 40 percent were situated in Kwara South, establishing the district as a key battleground.

Young voters aged between 18 and 29 years also constitute a major swing demographic, with 37 percent remaining undecided.

The senatorial results aligned with the gubernatorial trend, showing APC candidates holding major advantages across the three senatorial zones.

In Kwara Central, APC candidate and Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq led the PDP candidate, incumbent Senator Saliu Mustapha, by 62 percent to 33 percent among decided voters. In Kwara South, Olalekan Adewoye of the APC secured 60 percent against 36 percent for PDP's Saheed Popoola. Similarly, Mahmud Umar Muhammad of the APC maintained a 65 percent to 31 percent lead over Kolo Baba Jiya of the PDP in Kwara North.

The closest senatorial margins were recorded in Ilorin West (59 percent to 36 percent), Irepodun (58 percent to 39 percent), and Edu (58 percent to 38 percent). Kwara South recorded the highest proportion of undecided senatorial voters at 36 percent.

The survey further pointed to strong party-line voting behavior, with 64 percent of respondents indicating an intention to vote for candidates of the same party across both governorship and senatorial ballots. Only 15 percent considered splitting their votes, while 21 percent were unsure.

Additionally, the survey polled public opinion on the incumbent administration, with 59 percent rating Governor AbdulRazaq's performance as good or very good, compared to 17 percent who rated it poor or very poor.

On key issues shaping voter decisions, poor road infrastructure was identified as the primary challenge statewide by 25 percent of respondents. However, priority concerns varied by zone: power supply topped concerns in Kwara Central, road networks dominated in Kwara South, and security remained the primary issue in Kwara North.

NU Northstar Research noted that the methodology combined telephone surveys, field-level interviews, and digital questionnaires across all 193 wards.

While the data places the APC in a strong position, analysts noted that the high volume of undecided voters in Kwara South means the political race remains open to shifting dynamics as formal campaigning progresses.