Date: 2018-01-17

Shola Oyeyipo reviews the chances of those angling to takeover Kwara's number one seat from Abdufatah Ahmed

The 2019 general election is almost here. It seemed just like yesterday when the All Progressives Congress (APC) swept to power in 2015 with the promise of 'change.'

However, In state after state, APC's fortune appears to be going down the hill, especially in the North Central states of Kogi, Benue and Kwara, where the party, against all odds, had pulled an upset.

Kwara politics has been dominated by a Saraki, father and son, for the last 50 years. What are the issues that will dominate the campaign? Will Saraki, this time again, get to choose who sits in the government house in Ilorin? Who are the contenders and what chances do they have of succeeding Abdulfatah Ahmed, the current governor of the state?

The Issues

Competence

One issue that will likely dominate the 2019 gubernatorial campaign in Kwara is that of the competence of the aspirants. The recession and subsequent cash crunch that affected states made many of them to look inwards, seeking to creatively increase their internally generated revenue. Although Kwara is one of the top five states in terms of IGR, it still does not generate enough to meet all its obligations regarding staff salary.

One major bone of contention in the state is the government's claims that local government employees are not its responsibilities. This has pitched it against ALGON, which insists that since the state and local governments have a joint account, the state government cannot wash its hands off the employees of local governments who are owed salaries-ranging from 2 to 10 months.

The consequence of this dire financial strait has surprisingly been a good one for the recruitment of political leadership. For the first time, perhaps, many stakeholders are actively scrutinising the resumes of those who have shown interest to run for the governorship. Unlike in the past when the endorsement of the political godfather was all that was necessary, people are now asking for someone with a track record of competence and proven leadership, who can do the complex task of fixing the state. It has become obvious that the job is beyond the pay-grade of the average politician who would only wait for federal allocation from Abuja.

Zoning

In the past, the concept of zoning had not dominated political conversations in Kwara State. That is changing now. The current governor of the state, Abdulfatah Ahmed, is from the south and has spent eight years in the saddle. Prior to his tenure, Bukola Saraki, now Senate President, from the central zone, was governor for two terms.

Ideally, one would expect that Kwara North should have a shot at the governorship after the tenure of Ahmed. But it is not that simple. For one, the north has produced more (or as much?) governors than the other zones, even if their tenures were in bits and pieces. Then the central zone which has the largest population cluster in the state appears not willing to be shut out of the top job for a period of 16 years, which would be the case if the governorship goes to the north. It will indeed be difficult for any of the political parties, serious about winning, to ignore the sentiments of the Emirate people, who are mainly in the central. It is perhaps because of this that the majority of the current aspirants have come from the central.

Saraki

It is safe to say that no democratic governor has emerged in Kwara without the support of the Saraki family. First it was the father of the senate president, late Oloye Abubakar Olusola Saraki, who controlled the Kwara political space like a colossus until 2011 when he fell out with his son Bukola over whether his daughter, Gbemi, should take over from the son as governor! Bukola emerged victorious from that family contest and became the undisputed political leader of the state.

Today, the politics of Kwara is firmly in the hands of Bukola and it is unlikely that the next governor of the state will emerge without his support. His political group, which is firmly rooted in the APC, at least for now, is robust and includes the who-is-who of the politics in the state, starting from the governor. Although there is a small group of national politicians in the APC, led by the Minister for Information and Culture, Lai Mohammed, who do not necessarily see Bukola as their leader. However, this group is insignificant and has near-zero influence on the local politics of Kwara.

Yet, the opposition to Bukola is swelling. Even though the Saraki family has dominated the politics of Kwara, there has always been an historical opposition, led by some prominent Ilorin families such as the Abdulrazaks, the Zubairs, and the Saros who view his leadership as akin to slavery. Over time, many young and upwardly mobile Ilorin indigenes have joined the opposition against the Saraki political hegemony. It was this historical opposition, thriving on a youthful base that propelled the failed governorship campaign of Muhammed Dele Belgore of the defunct ACN in 2011. Despite the best efforts of the anti-Saraki group, they have always fallen short of their mark. Will they gain more influence or even upturn the political cart in 2019? This will depend on a number of factors, but especially on the kind of person Saraki nominates for the governorship.

The Contenders

Kawu Baraje

Baraje is APC chieftain and former Acting National Chairman of PDP He has been a stalwart of the APC since 2013 when he led a breakaway faction of the PDP to join the party. That defection cost him the plum job as Chairman of the Nigerian Railway Corporation (NRC), a position he was forced to resign from. Among the PDP rebels, who left the party in 2013, he was one of the few who suffered serious losses as a result of the defection, the notable other being Mallam Bolaji Abdullahi who lost his job as minister. There is no doubt that Baraje is loyal to the Saraki political family and would abide by whatever decision the group makes on the 2019 governorship.

He is also very competent and has been a very close associate of Saraki since his days as Permanent Secretary of Government House when Saraki was the governor. The major hindrance to his ambition of governing the state, however, may be his age. At 67, he may be considered too old and past his prime for the governorship, especially as many young Turks in their 40s are also angling for the same position. That aside, Baraje is a reliable hand that has proven his loyalty to his political family over time and distinguished himself in various capacities.

Razak Atunwa.

He is a member of the House of Representatives representing Asa/ Ilorin West Constituency He is also a staunch member of the Saraki political family. In fact, in 2011, he was the front runner for their party's gubernatorial ticket, ahead of the incumbent governor. At that time, he had a larger than life image, as well as following, and was referred to as "the one". But those days seem over for Atunwa as his political influence has dwindled over time. After losing the ticket to Ahmed, he was elected member and then Speaker of the Kwara State House of Assembly for one term and subsequently won election into the House of Representatives. After the 2015 elections, Atunwa seemed to have withdrawn into his shell and many think he may not be too interested in the governorship race.

Mallam Bolaji Abdullahi.

Abdullahi is the National Publicity Secretary of the APC and Former Minister of Sports He is a staunch associate of Saraki and perhaps the person whose loyalty has been tested the most amongst the aspirants gunning for the governorship. He was fired in March 2014 as Sports Minister when Saraki led a breakaway faction of the PDP to the APC. After rejecting overtures to dump Saraki, he was kicked out of the Goodluck Jonathan cabinet. He was also reportedly passed over as minister when the APC came to power because of his close association with Saraki, whom the APC leadership was at war with at that time over the manner he emerged as Senate President. In terms of competence, Abdullahi is well regarded and has won high praise as a reformer.

As commissioner for education in the Saraki cabinet, he stood out as a diligent performer who over time improved the lots of public education in the state. As minister too, he was one of a few outstanding cabinet members in the Jonathan administration who were giving additional portfolios because of the work they did. His most significant achievement as sports minister was the 2013 Africa Cup of Nations won by the national football team, the Super Eagles, 19 years after Nigeria last won the tournament at home soil.

Ahmad Ali

Ali is the speaker of the Kwara State House of Assembly. He was a competent lawmaker in the 7th National Assembly in which he served as a member of the House of Representatives between 2011 and 2015. In fact, he was the most prolific member of that house, sponsoring more bills and moving more motions than any other lawmaker.

His footprints as a lawmaker will probably endure forever for his sponsorship of the revolutionary Administration of Criminal Justice Bill, now Act, which seeks to reduce the amount of time for criminal trial. No doubt, few lawmakers have the energy and passion for law-making as Ali, who certainly has counted on his experience as a lawyer.

It was therefore surprising that he did not make it to the 8th National Assembly, but was instead 'demoted' to the Kwara State House of Assembly, where he emerged speaker. As speaker, he has brought some vibrancy into the business of law-making in the state as the KWHA has not simply been a rubber stamp. However, many believe he lacks requisite executive experience.

Mohammed Dele Belgore (SAN)

A former gubernatorial candidate, Belgore led a colourful campaign in 2011 tagged the 'Orange Revolution,' after the namesake upheavals which occurred in Ukraine and changed the political order of that country. Belgore's campaign did not cause similar effect in Kwara as he lost to the current incumbent. But it is generally accepted that he made good impression and his luck may turn in future. He however did not build on his popularity of 2011 but almost vanished from the field, appearing intermittently just before elections. He did not get the PDP ticket in 2015 and is in court facing a barrage of criminal allegations regarding the PDP presidential campaign fund for the 2015 elections.

If there was one man people believed would sack the Saraki political hegemony, it was Belgore. But that was then; today he appears to be a shadow of the political giant he was in 2011. It is doubtful that he can be in strong contention for the PDP ticket, as there are many new and brighter kids on the block. But, if the gods smile on him and he gets the PDP ticket and capture popular imagination as he did in 2011, 'Orange Revolution 2' may just hit its target.

Moshood Mustapha

He is Special Adviser to the Senate President and former member of the House of Representatives Of all the governorship aspirants in the APC, Mustapha appears to be the most aggressive and the one whose campaign for the job is anything but subtle. As far back as 2016, he had set up a central committee and appointed local coordinators for each of the 16 LGA to pursue his goal of succeeding Ahmed. This had irked many stakeholders who felt the Ilorin-born business man had jumped the gun. He also made sure he doled goodies to indigent people during Islamic and Christian festivals. Mustapha meant business, no doubt. Eventually though, Saraki had to intervene and called him to order while warning his appointees to desist from early campaign.

What Mustapha has going for him is his close relationship with Saraki, spanning many years. Even his own father was an associate of Oloye, the father of the Senate President. So his family has a long and rich tradition of being loyal to the Saraki family.

Beyond that, many are not too sure he stands a good chance of becoming the governor in this modern and complex period..

Lukman Mustapha

A businessman and Chairman of SobiFM, Ilorin, Lukman is a surprised entrant into the governorship race. Until recently he had not shown any interest whatsoever in politics even though his father was a politician and close associate of Oloye, the father of the Senate President. His elder brother and APC stalwart, Moshood is also in the race. But Lukman appears set to give the other aspirants a run for their money. He said his decision to consider himself for the was as a result of pressure from the people.

However, it is very difficult to say how far the businessman will go, considering he is not a known associate of Saraki, the undisputed political leader of the state. But he might not need Saraki's help after all as most of his associates and admirers are from the opposition PDP.

Zakari Mohammed

Mohammed is a member of the House of Representative, representing Baruten/KaimaConstituency. His :chances of becoming the next governor of Kwara State will become brighter if the clamour for the governorship to be zoned to the north gets the nod of the political leadership. A second term member of the House of Representatives, Mohammed is one of those aspirants waiting in the wings.

Prof. Shuaib Oba Abdularahim

Abdulraham is a former Vice Chancellor University of Ilorin. He has always been at loggerheads with Saraki. Their cat and mouse relationship often make it impossible for them to remain in the same political party. So far, Saraki has always emerged victorious of their various contests as his anointed candidates trounced the protégés of the former academic. Abdularaheem himself had sought his party's ticket (PDP) severally and lost. But he is well liked among the generality of the Ilorin people, for being always ready to use his position, whether as VC or board chairman, to help the local people to get jobs, admission and the likes. He is perceived as a good man who will not use the governorship to feather his own nest but to turn the lives of the people around. The challenge with him is that he is not very popular outside Ilorin. But if he gets the ticket of the PDP, which still has solid structures across the state, he can be a formidable candidate and may even pull a surprise.

Honourable Mentions

Of course, there are many more aspirants gunning for the governorship than those profiled here. But the aspirants above appear to be the strongest. The not-so-prominent one who will get honourable mentions will include Aliyu Ahman Pategi, a member of the House of Representatives (Kwara North), Abubakar Kanike also of the House of Representative (Ilorin East/South), and Alhaji Baba Ahmed, Chief of Staff to the Kwara State governor. Outside the APC, serial governorship aspirant, Dr Mike Omotosho is said to be also warming up.

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Although Kwara is one of the top five states in terms of IGR, it still does not generate enough to meet all its obligations