The crisis in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) may have reached a stalemate with firefights intensifying under supposed ceasefire among the warring factions From Sunday, when the purported ceasefire was agreed, to the current moment, the confrontation has widened and the feuding parties are daily moving towards permanent separation

The event of the last one week, coupled with more details of what transpired at the last Sunday meeting, confirmed that the differences, rather than narrowing, are getting out of control The messy details of the encounter during the last Sunday meeting may have pointed at a peace talk yet to take off, with the rules of engagement not clearly defined Combatants are still feeling free to fire salvos, while at the same time mouthing peace and reconciliation

The status quo is that of factions re-armed and are digging for even worst encounters Interactions with leaders on both sides proved clearly that the PDP is billed for a long drawn warfare As already noted by many commentators, the rift is an unusual gridlock in the history of the party The family umbrella is feeling the stress and if feelers from both ends are anything to go by, both sides may be going for the kill

Many analysts have been asking what went wrong to destroy, so suddenly, the peace move that saw the president humbling himself for photo shots with the aggrieved governors An examination of the timeline of the event may shed light on this

The meeting for ceasefire
The ceasefire meeting held last Sunday ended with a strange conclusion that initially sent many jubilating that that PDP had applied its magic

After a lengthy meeting at the Presidential Villa in Abuja, both sides agreed to find a solution to the crisis rocking the party The extraordinary meeting was attended by President Jonathan, Vice-President Namadi Sambo; the chairman of the PDP Board of Trustees, Chief Tony Anenih; Governors Liyel Imoke of Cross River State, Godswill Akpabio of Akwa Ibom and Idris Wada of Kogi State A peace deal was reached New PDP was represented by Governors Aliyu Babangida of Niger State, Rotimi Amaechi of Rivers and Rabi’u Kwankwaso of Kano State, Murtala Nyako of Adamawa State, Sule Lamido of Jigawa State and Abdulfatai Ahmed of Kwara State

At the end of the meeting, they issued a statement, committing themselves to ending inflammatory statements on contentious issues pending the resolution of the crisis Their statement read: “In the interim, all parties have accepted to commence immediate action and agreed towards complete resolution of all matters and continue to meet until all processes toward reconciliation are concluded amicably

“Meetings will continue on October 7, and we will make sure and ensure that there is progress in resolving the crisis The meetings were cordial and deliberations fruitful with clear commitments on all sides to resolve all issues raised at the meetings”

At the meeting, the aggrieved governors had tabled before President Jonathan some conditions which must be met before they would return to the mainstream PDP Their demands included the sacking of Bamanga Tukur as PDP national chairman, the president sticking to a one-term tenure by not seeking re-election in 2015 and stopping the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) from further investigating them

They also demanded that the president must halt the plans to take over PDP structures in their various states, the resolution of the Nigeria Governors’ Forum crisis and the recall of Rivers State governor, Amaechi, from suspension After the meeting, however, Baraje, the New PDP chairman, and Senator Bukola Saraki said only two or three of the demands had partially been addressed

Alhaji Baraje even claimed that the president and the Tukur-led PDP had accepted to reverse the dissolution of the Adamawa State chapter of the party and to rescind the suspension of Governor Amaechi

The announcement read by the Niger State governor, Aliyu, was received by watchers of events as not the total truth That all the leaders kept mute was seen as a signal that it is not yet Uhuru for the PDP That fear surfaced when, a day after, the governor of Akwa Ibom revealed more details about the Sunday meeting

Akpabio’s revelations
Akpabio told newsmen that the G7 state governors had agreed to remove President Jonathan’s perceived re-election bid from their demands

He said the governors, at the reconciliation meeting on Sunday with President Jonathan in attendance, agreed to drop their demand seeking to bar the president from standing for election in 2015 as part of a purported agreement between the president and Northern politicians in 2011

Akpabio said since “ambition is a personal thing to an aspirant,” the governors agreed not to discuss it or make it part of the conditions for a deal

“On the issue of 2015, both sides agreed that it wasn’t an issue for discussion because every single person has a right to nurse ambition Some of the governors may have ambition, like I have ambition to go to the Senate, and you can’t discuss anything about another person’s ambition You are the only person that can discuss your own ambition Ambition is personal So, both parties agreed to that”

The New PDP, however, disputed the claims by the Akwa Ibom governor, affirming that there was never a time they agreed to drop their demands that the president should not re-contest The Baraje-led PDP, in a statement in Abuja, urged “Nigerians to ignore the tissue of lies and propaganda from the Tukur faction of the party on the outcome of our meeting with President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan at the Presidential Villa last Sunday, 15 September

“We wish to specifically urge Nigerians and our supporters to ignore the concocted tales of Governor Godswill Akpabio of Akwa Ibom and chairman of PDP Governors Forum Akpabio lied by claiming that we have accepted that President Jonathan should contest the 2015 presidential election and that most of our demands are being met The fact of the case is that no agreement has been reached on any of the issues we tabled before the president and until we see results, Nigerians should ignore the present efforts by the Tukur camp to deceive them”

The faction said, concerning 2015, that “we wish to say that we have a mechanism and system of electing our flag-bearers for any election and until the time to choose the party’s presidential flag-bearer comes, any speculation on this is just a mere academic exercise”

The firefights
The ceasefire appears a declaration of firefights as the conflict has degenerated more than what obtained prior to the peace deal The action of the Tukur leadership over Kano leadership of the party came at a time reports are rife that plans are underway to take over structures under the control of the aggrieved governors

The tenure of the Kano executives had expired more than six months ago, but the national leadership only acted now that the Kano State governor is leading the rebellion While the action of Tukur over Kano is legal, the timing is a problem The sudden defection of Mohammed Abacha to the PDP also signaled a war preparation, a development the New PDP believes confirmed that peace deal is a mirage

If Tukur and Akpabio acted in a way that undermine the peace process, the New PDP also acted in ways that proved that the plot to break up PDP has gone beyond a state of reversal The address at the National Assembly, which led to the fracas in the lower chamber, raised the issue of a deep-seated plot that may not be easily resolved under the current arrangement The New PDP has rallied its base, which, for long, has been with the House of Representatives

The battle plans
Interactions with leaders on both sides of the divides hinted at the firefights expanding and deepening up to a breaking point The Presidency and its footsolders may be working on a make-or-mar push to ensure that as little as possible concession is granted the New PDP As a party chief put it, “we may go it alone and allow Nigerians to decide at the poll We will not concede and if they quit, we present ourselves before Nigerians to decide, come 2015

“There may be concessions, but not all these key ones they are asking for Thank God, we have more time So, I don’t see the Tukur side making any concession”
The plan is to rely on state power and emerging successes in some sectors of the economy The other expectations may be the inherent weaknesses in the capacity of Antiguan opposition to effectively tackle incumbent parties in sub-Saharan Africa

But the New PDP leaders have even more dangerous agenda They are rich and entrenched within the power structure They may go for the kill too and even take the unusual step of teaming up with opposition coalition, the APC A PDP chief told Sunday tribune that “this is not the usual revolt and the earlier the TUkur people realise it, the better”

There is, however, a third force within the crisis Some establishment leaders are working hard to ensure that the issue does not lead to permanent separation

One of them, a top leader from the South-East, said “we won’t allow a break-up This is PDP and we must come back to the basics; we have never had it this bad, but we will get it right”