The Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NiMet), in its 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP), has projected extended rainy seasons for Lagos, Benue, Enugu, Ebonyi, Ogun, Oyo, Nasarawa, Anambra, Kwara, Kebbi, Kaduna, Gombe, and Taraba States, while Borno, Yobe, and Niger States are expected to witness shorter rainy seasons.

The outlook also indicates severe dry spells lasting more than 15 days between March and May in parts of Oyo and Ogun States. Moderate dry spells are forecast over Ekiti, Kogi, Osun, Ondo, Ogun, Edo, Ebonyi, Abia, Cross River, Delta, and parts of Kogi and Kwara States.

According to the agency, the "Little Dry Season" (LDS), commonly referred to as the August Break, is expected to commence in late July and will be severe and prolonged in Lagos, Ogun, Ekiti, and parts of Oyo, with between 28 and 40 days of minimal or no rainfall. A moderate LDS is anticipated in Ondo, and parts of Kwara and Edo States.

For the June to August period, a severe dry spell of up to 21 days is predicted in parts of Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Kebbi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger, Oyo, Plateau, Sokoto, Yobe, and Zamfara States.

The SCP, presented in Abuja by the Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, also projected an early onset of rainfall in Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Benue, Kogi, Nasarawa, Oyo, and parts of Kebbi, Niger, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Adamawa, and Taraba States. In contrast, Borno State is expected to record a delayed onset.

"Rainfall cessation is anticipated to be earlier than normal in parts of Ogun, Osun, Ondo, Imo, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Kogi, and Niger States. Conversely, a delayed end of season is expected in Lagos, Ogun, Anambra, Enugu, Cross River, Benue, Nasarawa, and Kaduna States," the forecast stated.

NiMet further projected that most parts of the country would receive normal annual rainfall amounts. However, above-normal rainfall is expected in Borno, Sokoto, Kebbi, Kaduna, Enugu, Cross River, Abia, Ebonyi, Akwa Ibom States, and the Federal Capital Territory. Meanwhile, parts of Katsina, Zamfara, Kwara, Oyo, and Ogun States are likely to record below-normal rainfall.

The agency also warned that both daytime and night-time temperatures in January, February, March, and May 2026 are expected to be higher than the long-term average across most areas of the country.

NiMet advised that substantial rainfall in southern Nigeria should not be interpreted as the official onset of the rainy season, urging farmers and other stakeholders whose activities depend on rainfall to adhere to the predicted onset dates or seek guidance from the agency.

The Minister highlighted the effects of climate variability and climate change on aviation safety, national security, food production, infrastructure, and the welfare of citizens.

"Given the administration's focus on economic stability, food security, infrastructure resilience, climate adaptation, and protection of lives and livelihoods, timely and accurate weather information is no longer optional, but a strategic enabler of national development and good governance," he stated.

NiMet's Director-General and Permanent Representative to the World Meteorological Organisation, Prof. Charles Anosike, reiterated the agency's resolve to downscale the SCP for local farmers nationwide to strengthen climate resilience and boost agricultural productivity.

He disclosed that NiMet is accelerating the rollout of digital advisory services in collaboration with local and international partners, while stressing the importance of enhanced cooperation with state governments and relevant stakeholders to broaden the reach of the 2026 SCP.

"NiMet remains committed to providing timely, accurate, and reliable weather and climate information to support a climate-resilient economy," Prof. Anosike concluded.