Will Recent Supreme Court Victories Provide Life-line For PDP? By Chibuzo Ukaibe

Date: 2016-02-08

The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has been in jubilation mode, thanks to the Supreme Court. The ace opposition party which despaired over its loss of the presidency last year and was thrown into immense depression and confusion, seemingly has a life line after all. The judgements of the Apex Court which affirmed their governorship mandates in some states, could embolden the opposition party in its reform process and possibly enable them make a strong presence in the 2019 general election, some analysts opine.

PDP governors of Delta, Abia, Akwa Ibom, Gombe, Rivers and Ebonyi states had secured favorable judgements at the Supreme Court after they sought legal, protesting earlier judgements by the Appeal Court rulings which favored the All Progressives Congress (APC) and All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) in the case of Abia. Although the Apex Court is set to deliver judgement in Taraba State, the former ruling party at the center, already boasts of Cross River, Enugu, Ondo, Ekiti States as their own.

Bayelsa State was also retained by the party after a fierce battle that stretched for weeks. The mandate would still have to be tested at the courts as declared by the governorship candidate of the APC Timipre Sylva. PDP however lost Kogi State to the APC. But it nurses the hope that it would retain the state through the court. The unprecedented political and legal confusion in the state has laid bare a scenario for surprises. Interestingly too, the party retained the oil-rich states, the supposedly weathering cash cow of the country, hence giving it some form of financial muscle. This much as lamented by the national chairman of APC, Chief John Odigie-Oyegun who declared "we have lost very important resource-rich states to the PDP. No matter how crude oil prices have fallen, it is still the most important revenue earner for the country."

Still, for a former ruling party that relied so much on the presidency to weather turbulent seasons in the past, it has found it hard to cope with the post election trauma that befell it after the 2015 election. More so, with the bulk of their governors, hitherto embattled by the post election tribunals, it was a free for all for as other stakeholders of the party scrambled for its soul. Before now, PDP governors had been a major force to deal with within the party. To say the least, the presidency always had to rely on them to deliver the party. They bear the famous moniker "field commanders" of the party.

They largely controlled the grassroots, determined to a major extent party delegates as well as the national chairmanship of the party. In worse case scenarios, they forced the presidency into a bargain, that is if the later must have its way in the affairs of the party. As the intra-party politics of PDP evolved after 1999, former president Olusegun Obasanjo, began to make it clear that he was going to have his way at all times in the affairs of the party. He aligned more with the local government chairmen at the time, who were quite powerful at the grassroot levels, because they had financially independence at the time and could withstand the influence of their governors.

However governors, cut across political parties, perhaps in a bid to decimate the local government, came up with the joint state/local government account, thereby depriving the local government chairmen of funds. While the legality of the action lingered in court, it gave the governors political mileage, as their influence grew, especially within the then ruling party, PDP, which controlled more states and also headed the larger governors forum.

In his second term in office, Olusegun Obasanjo, saw the need to cut the then governors of the party to size. He had barely survived his party's presidential primaries as he was at the mercy of the governors who enjoyed a robust relationship with the former Vice President, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar. Seething with anger for revenge over his humiliating ordeal at the primaries, the presidency under Obasanjo allegedly unleashed the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) on unyielding governors. State legislatures were also allegedly influenced to cause the impeachment of governors. However with the emergence of late, President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua, a former governor of Katsina State, PDP governors became very influence in the affairs of the party again. They had basically lobbied for one of them to take over from Obasanjo and as alleged in certain quarters, some of them actually funded the late president's campaign.

During the years of Bukola Saraki, as former governor of Kwara State and chairman of NGF, the influence of the governors was so powerful that they overwhelmingly saw to the emergence and sacking of national chairmen of PDP. They progressively became emperors not just in their states but at the national level, deciding who got party tickets. They in same measure financed most of the activities of the party, dictating the affairs within the party. They were very influential in the ascension of Goodluck Jonathan as then acting president, substantial president and elected president in 2011.

But shortly after his election in 2011, Jonathan ran into troubled waters with the governors, as a crisis of confidence ensued. Having emerged vice president to late Yar'Adua, after serving as governor of Bayelsa State, Jonathan understood how influential the governors had become. Interestingly too, he had witnessed first hand, as deputy governor to late Deprieye Alamiesiegha, (who was impeached in controversial circumstances by the state legislature) the power of the president to allegedly influence the sack of a sitting governor. The first sore-point between Jonathan and his former colleagues manifested with the emergence of Dr. Bamanga Tukur.In 2012 as then PDP national chairman. This was against the choice of the governors, Musa Babayo, who was chosen by their colleagues from the North East. The choice of Tukur (a governor from the 1983 set and founding member of the party) was perceived by the governors as a subtle move by Jonathan to tame them, which manifested later, leading to the defection of some influential governors who caused PDP a lot of votes in 2015.

While the governors resisted Tukur's "high handedness", the former chairman insisted on party discipline and resisted the practice of imposition of candidates which the governors were accused of since the days of late Yar'Adua. Another major sore point was the controversial one term pact between Jonathan and the PDP governors. It was alleged that support of the PDP governors for Jonathan in 2011 was the predicted on the said agreement. The presidency of the party was zoned to North from 2007 to 2015. When the issue was broached by former Niger state Governor, Babangida Aliyu, the Jonathan-led presidency had outrightly denied the existence of such document. The then presidency continued to deny its existence, while Obasanjo and other party members insisted it existed.

More so, the inability of Jonathan to mend fences with the former chairman of NGF (and defector chairman of PDP governors) Chibuike Amaechi, which culminated in his suspension by the party, creation of the PDP governors forum under former governor Godwill Akpabio also didn't help matters. In 2013, Jonathan and PDP governors eventually failed to stop Amaechi's reelection as NGF chairman, a first signal of how his party's governors let him down on one end and began his defeat ahead of 2015. The mass exodus of the famous G7 governors in 2013, namely Rivers (Amaechi); Kwara (Abdulateef Lawal); Sokoto (former governor Aliyu Wammako); Adamawa (former governor Murtala Nyako); Kano (former governor Musa Kwankwaso); Jigawa (former governor Sule Lamido); Niger (Aliyu), had become inevitable. They formed the new PDP.

While the five other governors eventual joined the All Progressives Congress (APC), the decision of Lamido and Aliyu to stay back in PDP did not change much. With the rank of the governors depleted in significant states, it was difficult for PDP to retain much of its influence going into last years general election. Since last years electoral loss, the PDP has had little to cheer about, as they struggle to navigate through the woes of their defeat.

From trading in blames for the loss, to the simmering tussle for its national chairmanship position there is no telling whether the party will survive this wave of internal conflagration ahead of the national convention this March as fixed by the NWC. Instituting early reforms, like zoning and assurances of no more impositions as arising from post election review committee has not helped much also. The national confab to shore up the party's confidence appeared to not stem much of the raging dissension within its ranks.

More so with the revelations of the Dasuki gate scandal involving so of its party leaders, there has been talk of rebranding the party, even its name. Nevertheless, the recent (legal) governorship victories for PDP is significant for a party, struggling for direction, analysts opine. With the presidency not over their heads anymore, the governors, as the next most influential stakeholders of the party would have to grapple with other organs of the party to show direction. But how they handle the current raging national chairmanship tussle would be instructive.

Forced into the national chairmanship tussle, by the court action of Jonathan's former political aide, Ahmed Gulak, the PDP Governors Forum under the Ondo State governor, Olusegun Mimko, had in trying to calm frayed nerves asked the acting national chairman, Uche Secondus, to vacate office but also berated Gulak for storming the PDP secretariat. Their position was to allow stakeholders from the North-east select a replacement that would be ratified by the National Executive Committee (NEC).

Gulak had declared himself national chairman of the PDP having secured a court judgement which asked Secondus to revert to his deputy chairmanship position so that a party member from the North east can occupy the national chairmanship position as zoned by the party. Gulak is from Adamawa State in the North East. However both, Secondus-led NWC and Gulak have rejected the position of the governors. While the NWC insisted that Secondus remains the acting chairman, Gulak blasted the governors for issuing their directive in error since was validly made chairman by the court.

But even the governors appear to be split on the matter. Contrary to the position of the governors, the Bayelsa State governor, Seriake Dickson, had insisted that Secondus is the acting governor. More so, the North-east meeting that was supposed to produce a candidate last week was not possible because the two governors from the zone, Ibrahim Dankwambo of Gombe State and Darius Ishaku of Taraba State had allegedly failed to agree on a candidate.

While the lingers crisis of national chairmanship lingers, whether or not the governors an return to their "glory days" would remain hazy, even though they still retain the oil rich states (which is dependent on the rise or fall of the oil internationally). But there are larger concern for party faithful. It is rather hazy whether the governors would agree to some of the reforms proposed by the current NWC. Besides the zoning of the party to the North, the decision to remove the delegate system in place of direct primaries, carry out nation wide e-registration of members and revising the funding pattern of the party would be instructive for the governors.

Over the years, governors of the party have determined delegates from their states as a formidable tool to sway elective positions within the party. They have also controlled who gets to registered as a member of the party as the party's register is usually at their beck and call. Whether the governors are reformed enough to relinquish such powers would be instructive. One thing is clear though, nature abhors vacuum. As it stands in PDP, with the cacophony of voices seeking control of the party, it is yet to be seen whether these set of governors, can put person egos aside and help salvage their party as a strong opposition needed for the stability of robust democracy.

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