The 2015 governorship election in Kwara State has been zeroed to Kwara South where the incumbent governor, Abdulfattah Ahmed of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and his main challenger, Senator Simon Ajibola of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), both hail from. BIODUN OYELEYE reports on the factors that will shape the election

Abdulfattah Ahmed: On a return journey

Since the APC leader in the state, Senator Bukola Saraki openly endorsed Governor Ahmed, it was clear he would be the only aspirant, given the consensus principles enunciated with the Saraki political structure. Strength: The support of his political structure, the fact that APC is in power in the 16 local government areas, controls majority of the assembly seats and has been continuing with the programmes and policies of the previous administration thereby leaving no room for abandoned projects are all factors in favour of the incumbent governor.

Ahmed is considered humble and loyal. The KWABES programme that provides stop-gap jobs for youths, the Community Health Insurance Scheme and various empowerment programmes are all considered as strong points for the governor in the election.

So, also is a recent upgrading of traditional stools and some rural electrification projects. Weakness: His loyalty to his political leader, Saraki, is seen by some as ‘too much’ particularly by those who want a new order in the state. He is said to have a lot of ‘promissory notes’ to settle especially to associates who also are angry that he neglected them after assuming office. His opponents also condemn him for allegedly not having been able to start a new project under his own name since assuming office as well as accused him of running his government by propaganda. State of the APC: The APC is in firm control of the state with all elective offices on its platform except Kwara South senatorial seat where the PDP gubernatorial candidate hails from.

Unlike PDP, it has been able to manage the process for the emergence of candidates such that those who were dropped are not fighting back against the system. In the southern district, it has hearkened to the yearnings of Christians to have candidates from the zone and has redistributed offices to cater for zoning and electoral value addition.

Simon Ajibola: From Senate to Government House?

Senator Ajibola, a ranking senator from Kwara South, won the PDP ticket in a tight race that first witnessed much acrimony and violence. He polled 144 votes to beat Mr. Dele Belgore (SAN), who was considered as the presidency’s man in the race, who scored 132 votes at the primaries. Strength: He is a grassroots politician, a ‘strategist’, as one insider put it, with penchant for winning where he is considered an underdog. When he contested the Senate seat during the transition programme by late General Sani Abacha, on the United Nigeria Congress Party (UNPP), he was regarded as an underdog, but he went ahead to win.

In 2003, he ran for Senate again on the ticket of the PDP, Makanjuola Ajadi, candidate of the All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP), was declared winner. Yet in a surprise turn of event, Ajibola won the legal battle he instituted to claim the senatorial seat.

Since then he has been in the Senate. He is a Christian, from the southern district and though religion is not an issue yet, it could work in his favour given the recent face-off between the state government and Christians in the state over the running of missionary schools. Besides, Kwara has not had a Christian governor since the days of Chief Cornelius Adebayo who ruled for only three months in 1983. He is also easily accessible.

Weakness: Many see Ajibola as tight fisted and that unlike his contemporaries from the state, he has not been a visible legislator. His kinsmen almost rejected him in 2011 during his third run for the Senate because of this, but for the intervention of then Governor Bukola Saraki. While the factor of religion may help him in his senatorial base, it might work against him in the central district which incidentally has the highest number of votes and had sought the ticket to use its numerical strength to advantage during the election.

State of the PDP: Unless something is done immediately to calm frayed nerves, the PDP will be prosecuting the election with a much divided house. In the build up to the primaries, 11 of the contestants stood against Dele Belgore and those they claimed were his supporters; Hajia Muina Shagaya, Minister of National Planning, Dr. Suleiman Abubakar and the party’s chairman, Akogun Iyiola Oyedepo and thus by extension the Presidency. The state executive committee of the party is currently divided with few members following Oyedepo and the rest standing with the 11 former aspirants.

Indeed, few hours to the eventual primary election, the rumour mill was agog about a planned vote-of-no-confidence to be cast against Oyedepo by some members of the executive. The Elders’ Forum of the party also stood with the 11 aspirants during the crisis. Ilorin West which is the major focus of every election given its size and being the home of the Sarakis, is divided into two major camps belonging to Shagaya versus Gbemisola Saraki and Prof. Wahab Oba and they are not working together.