The passing to glory of Dr. Abubakar Olusola Saraki, the Waziri of Ilorin and Founder of Northern Union (NU) on Wednesday November 14, at the age of 79 was seen in the nation's polity and among the political elites as the fall of an elephant. His death marked a virtual end of an era defined by political activism, philanthropy and most importantly the prolonged hegemonic grip of Kwara politics, the influence which analysts say was a product of his resilience, dedication and unprecedented generosity through which he won the hearts of many Kwarans especially the womenfolk who constitute a strong and potent electoral bloc in the state.

For close to four decades, Saraki was not only the deciding factor in Kwara politics, he was more or less the only factor which determined the political direction of the state. He was no doubt one of the most successful politicians in Nigeria having installed virtually all the civilian governors the state had produced since its creation in 1967 including his son. 

Those he installed but fell out with him never got the chance for a second coming. In 1979, he single-handedly installed the state's first governor, Adamu Attah. When Attah fell out with him in the subsequent election year, he joined forces with the then opposition Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN) and installed Chief Cornelius Adebayo.

In 1999, after the return of democracy in Nigeria, he installed another governor, Alhaji Mohammed Lawal on the ticket of the All Peoples Party (APP).  Before the 2003 election, the affection between Lawal and Saraki had gone sour. Saraki dumped Lawal and installed his son, Bukola, as the next governor.  Under his watch, Bukola got the ticket for a second term in office in 2007, thus becoming the first governor to rule for two tenure.

However, Saraki's major defeat to the chagrin of many ardent political watchers was in 2011, when he floated the Allied Congress Party of Nigeria (ACPN), on which platform he sought to install his daughter, then a senator, Gbemisola, as the next governor. The attempt was not successful as the Peoples Democratic Party PDP), backed by his son, won the election.

That probably was his major defeat since his foray into politics. However, no sooner than the election finished than there was a rapproachment within the Saraki's political empire as the ACPN loyalists and supporters were asked to shift loyalty to the PDP.

With his death last year, many politicians and observers opine that Kwara politics can never be the same again even though the junior Saraki, after serving eight years as governor and as Senator representing Kwara Central in the National Assembly; the seat vacated by his sister, has been taunted as leader of the political dynasty and the ruling party in the state.

But recent developments in the country and the state have validated the insinuation and hunches among observers who predicted that the death of Oloye as Saraki was fondly called by his supporters and followers, has changed the political landscape of the state. 

Unlike in other states of the federation, virtually all the politicians and political office holders in Kwara state have in one way or the other passed through Oloye's political tutelage. They owe their ascension to position and fame to his anointing irrespective of the party in power. The pervasive influence of late Saraki in Kwara politics, analysts believe, is responsible for his numerous electoral successes.

With his death last year, the question on the lips of many observers was whether or not the scion of Saraki's dynasty, Bukola, who has assumed the position of leadership following the death of his father, could command the enormity of influence, clout and the followership late Saraki commanded which made him to be the only decider of who got what in the state from the governorship position to councillor including federal appointments with little or no challenge.

Sadly and most interestingly, the trend has changed owing to emerging dissensions in the dynasty with some politicians who rode through the back of Oloye to rise to political stardom in the state challenging Bukola's political leadership. 

Daily Trust gathered that there had been disquiet in the state PDP leadership but the overt politicking and struggle for the political soul of the state was within the realm of conjecture until the lid was blown open in August 31 when PDP at the national level split into old and new with Kwara aligning with the latter. Those who have an axe to grind with Saraki quickly queued behind the Bamanga Tukur-led faction thereby dissociating themselves from the "rebellion" by the New PDP backed by seven Governors including Governor Abdulfatah Ahmed of Kwara State. 

It would be recalled that prior to the August 31 event, the state PDP leadership had addressed newsmen declaring that the party in the state remains united and warning against any move at the federal level to hijack the structure which it claimed was solidly erected by the late Saraki and is currently under the leadership of Senator Bukola. 

Our correspondent however gathered that the second time reappointment of Professor Shuaib Abdulraheem as Chairman of the Federal Character Commission (FCC) against the wish of Senator Saraki who prefered the zoning of the position to Kwara North was responsible for the crisis in the state PDP while the University Don is believed to be the leader of the Tukur's group or Old PDP.

Though both Saraki and Abdulraheem have maintained sealed lips over the purported friction and even exchanged pleasantries at the praying ground during the last Eid-el-Kabir celebration, their followers and supporters have been granting interviews and issuing press releases indicating disagreement between the duo. Besides, Abdulraheem led the delegation of Kwara PDP members that visited Bamanga Tukur at the Wadata Plaza secretariat of PDP in Abuja on September 18. Other members of the delegation included former Sports and Transport Minister, Alhaji Bio Ibrahim who is currently the Chairman of Nigeria Export Promotion Council, pioneer PDP chairman in the state, Barrister Kunle Sulyman, a former member of the House of Representatives, Hon. Zulukarnaini Edun, among others.

But the machinery of government which is under the firm control of Senator Saraki is the greatest source of strength for members of the new PDP in the state and by extension those who remain glued to the Saraki's dynasty. With the governor openly declaring Saraki as the leader of PDP in the state and affirming his belief in the political structure of late Oloye as he told visiting All Progressives Congress (APC) National leaders last week, it is incontrovertible that Saraki still holds sway as a political leader in the state. Besides, he has the support of more than 80 per cent of National and State Assembly members from the state who have demonstrated their loyalty and pledged to continually be loyal and obedient to the political structure nurtured by the late Oloye.

Speaking with Daily Trust recently, Bio who was a 2011 governorship aspirant in the state said though he was a supporter of late Saraki while he was alive, he is presently not with his son whom he accused of being self-centred.

Following Bio's interview where he ventilated his grievances with the way he was allegedly edged out in the governorship race by Saraki, the former Speaker of the State House of Assembly has come under severe attacks from Saraki's loyalists who describe him as ingrate. Rep. Moshood Mustapha representing Ilorin West/Asa Federal constituency hit back at Bio, describing him as an ingrate. He said it was unfortunate that after all that Bukola Saraki did for Bio, he could turn his back against the man. "He is the luckiest person in Kwara politics. Saraki made him commissioner, member of the House of Reps and Speaker of the Kwara State House of Assembly. There is nothing he can do to condemn Saraki, because he cannot even win an election in his ward". According to him, Bio was not in a anyway loyal to late Olusola Saraki as claimed, saying all he wanted was to become governor of Kwara State, which was why he accused Bukola of being self-serving.

Also speaking, the immediate past Secretary to the Government of Kwara State who served under Saraki, Alhaji Saka Isau believes the Saraki's structure still remains intact.

According to him, those masterminding a rebellion against the dynasty are not facing the reality on ground. Those people, he added, are ingrates.

Despite the dissenting opinions and voices against the Saraki's dynasty, Baba's supporters and followers who have shifted their loyalty to his son still litter Kwara state. Among them are elders, women and youths who stand by the dynasty like a rock.

Speaking on the unfolding developments, an opposition figure in the state, Chief Iyiola Akogun who was also once a supporter of Saraki opines that after some years, Saraki's name would be totally forgotten, saying he represented nothing. According to him, 2015 elections would demonstrate whether or not Oloye's structure is still effective. Besides, he added that the late Saraki often relied on federal might to win election.

With the crisis in PDP, APC had invited Sarakis to join the party but they were not committed to the invitation extended to them. Whether or not the dynasty is still valid in Kwara State, 2015 election would tell.