Will Governor Abdulfatah Ahmed secure a second term ticket in 2015? This is the poser presently causing ripples in the North Central state, even as there are strong indications that he may be stopped in his track. Remi Adelowo writes

His emergence as the Governor of Kwara State last year could be attributed to a combination of fate, luck and strategic political considerations.

Indeed for Alhaji Abdulfatah Ahmed, nothing else could have been more befitting than being elected as governor, after serving as commissioner for eight years during the tenure of his predecessor, Dr. Abubakar Bukola Saraki.

Ahmed's nomination both as the governorship candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and his final victory at the 2011 general elections did not, however, come easy, revealed sources privy to the intrigues, intense lobbying and horse trading that characterised the process.

The Nation gathered that with just a few weeks to the Peoples Democratic Party's (PDP) primaries, apprehension had reached fever pitch among PDP members in Kwara State, with no one sure where the pendulum was likely to swing among the few aspirants jostling to succeed Saraki.

Interestingly too, the former governor, whom everybody was waiting for to make the big decision, was not helping matters. "For months, many of his (Saraki's) associates could not read his mind, as the man simply kept his ace close to his chest," said a source.

Investigations, however, revealed that of all the aspirants, Saraki is likely to favour Abdulfatah Ahmed and Razak Atunwa, the current Speaker of the State House of Assembly. An insider to the political power house in the state said this was because of their closeness to the godfather and their experience. "In terms of cognate experience to run the state, Ahmed and Atunwa are considered to be amongst the most qualified to be governor.

"Ahmed, a former banker before he was poached by Saraki, was the Commissioner for Finance before he was redeployed to the less visible Ministry of Economic Planning after an alleged undisclosed misunderstanding with his boss.

Atunwa was also unarguably one of Saraki's 'anointed boys' in the cabinet. In the course of his eight-year tenure as commissioner, he was, at various times, in charge of the Ministries of Information and Home Affairs; Works and Transport and Finance.

A law graduate from the University of East London, he was running a thriving legal firm in the United Kingdom before the lure of politics compelled him to return home at the instance of the patriarch of Kwara politics, Dr. Olusola Saraki.

However, since stakeholders were insisting then that time was running out, a decision had to be made quickly. So, Saraki finally settled for Atunwa, or so it seemed. The decision, according to sources, pleased majority of party members, who described him as 'friendly, accessible and generous.'

But as is typical in politics where no decision is taken as a fait accompli until the very end, other factors soon came into play in the battle for PDP nomination ticket.

So, Ahmed and other party stakeholders from Kwara South Senatorial Zone, who canvassed for power shift from Kwara Central, were not ruffled by Atunwa's alleged endorsement, even when it seemed to have been welcomed by many party members.

It would be recalled that the governor then, Saraki, who had ruled for eight years from 2003-2011, hails from Kwara Central; ditto his predecessor, Mohammed Alabi Lawal. Atunwa also hails from Asa Local Government in Kwara Central.

So, some stakeholders had argued that to ensure fairness and equity, power should be ceded to Kwara South, which last produced a governor in 1983, when Senator Cornelius Adebayo ruled the old Kwara State from October to December 1983.

Also not learning anything to chance, Ahmed also pulled all the strings to turn the table in his favour. A source revealed what transpired: "One particular night, Ahmed went to meet Saraki at the governor's lodge. For hours, he pleaded with the then governor to give him a chance, promising never to disappoint."

To plug all loopholes, according to the source, Ahmed also visited Atunwa, asking for his support. The then governor eventually caved in to the intense pressures on him from within and outside the state to consider Ahmed, but allegedly gave a caveat: "Ahmed will only run for a single term."

The source also alleged that Saraki, in order not to create any crack in the party, granted a late night one-on-one meeting with Atunwa, where he explained why he had to settle for Ahmed, while calling on Atunwa to support the party's decision.

The Nation gathered that it was at this meeting that Saraki told Atunwa to run for a seat in the House of Assembly, with a promise to influence his emergence as Speaker for "strategic reasons."

Elections over, all the calculations came to pass as Ahmed was elected governor while Atunwa became the speaker of the House.

But barely a year in the saddle as governor, sources are alleging that Ahmed is plotting another term in office.

A pointer to the alleged game plan came to the fore some weeks ago when some members of the House of Assembly, allegedly acting at the behest of the governor, wrote a petition against Atunwa, accusing him of sundry offences, ranging from alleged financial mismanagement and high handedness in the running of the House.

The alleged 'rebellion' to unseat Atunwa was however, foiled, even as some of the Suspected leaders of the plot, who were principal officers in the House, were removed from their exalted positions.

With the speaker shoved aside, the game plan, according to political watchers in the state, was to enable the governor have control of the House, unlike the current situation where almost all, if not all the members, owe their allegiance to Saraki, now a senator representing Kwara Central.

For now, Saraki has kept out of the fray, telling close aides that it was too early to take on the governor, but sources said "he is very angry with Ahmed right now."

The big question is: Why is Saraki insisting that Ahmed should spend one term in office? "The reason is simple", said a source, who added, "The elder Saraki never backed any candidate for a second term and the son is also using the same method. The fear is that a governor having spent two terms in office would become too powerful and uncontrollable."

So, with his every move and decision closely shadowed by Saraki's camp, how Ahmed will navigate through the obvious political minefield ahead of his alleged second term ambition remains in the realm of conjecture.

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