Date: 2014-08-14

Today, elections in Nigeria have reached a new crescendo and it is imperative to dissect the single most important factor that motivates electorates in deciding whom they cast their vote for. Besides “stomach infrastructure” which many believe it is the closest to the grassroots, other factors such as competency, antecedents and party affiliation become less important.

It is now glaring that people no longer vote for political parties but for candidates that are suitable for the job and also candidates that are attached to the people at the grassroots. Take the scenario in Ekiti State for instance, the people of Ekiti voted for Ayo Fayose against the incumbent Governor Kayode Fayemi and the case of Osun where Rauf Aregbesola defeated Omisore as against the huge Federal support given to him. The wish of the people will definitely triumph power of incumbency and federal might. For Fayemi, many opined that inspite of his glowing achievements there was a huge disconnect with the common man at the grassroot while others agree that the heavy presence of armed security personnel alien to the people of Ekiti affected the turn out. Whatever the reasons for his loss, it appears that the opposition party has ganered some useful experience to propel them in future elections. Testament to that is the victory recorded by the incumbent governor Rauf Aregbesola to the dismay of the ruling party. Expectedly, the tide turned and mistakes of the Fayemi loss were effectively corrected at the polls.

Intimidation by security personnel, arrest of party stalwarts, molestation of citizens percieved to be in the opposition, the use of federal power to intimidate junior election officers and many other abracadabra were endured and overcome by the APC this time around.

The political terrain in Nigeria has changed, gone are those days when Federal might will always triumph over the will of the people. Now if a candidate is not popular, I bet you he or she will always lose elections. Take Kwara as an instance, no politician is as popular as Senator Bukola Saraki. He inherited a very solid political structure from his father, late Dr. Olusola Saraki. Bukola Saraki is well connected to the people at the grassroots. He is very close to the people of Kwara and it is only a leader that is close to the people that can know the problems the people are facing and also possible solutions to those problems

It sounds funny to me when some groups of politicians in Kwara PDP without any political structure claim they want to seize Kwara from Saraki. These sets of politicians have got nothing attached to the grassroot. They can not even win their wards for PDP not to talk of Kwara. APC as a party is firmly rooted in Kwara. APC is a party to win come 2015. Below is a short analyses of the politicians in Kwara PDP.

Dele Belgore

Dele belgore was a member of the defunct ACN now APC before switched allegience to the PDP. He contested the governorship election on the platform of APC. He lost and all he could was to move back to Lagos and this automatically made him lose his followers. This made the people of Kwara to realize he is not worthy as a leader at all, unlike Bukola Saraki that comes home often to check on the wellbeing of Kwarans at large. Dele belgore is not attached to the people of Kwara. The electorate now votes for a popular candidate and not political party

Prof Oba Abdulraheem

I have not for once seen the Prof as a politician that is connected to the people at the grassroots. The only thing that makes him known by a few people in Ilorin is the Federal jobs he shares. The problem Kwara youths are having with him is that he only share 'little' slots to some few people in Ilorin and the rest goes to his immediate family, neglecting the rest of Kwara, Prof only distribute juicy Federal jobs to his immediate family and his close allies in Ilorin, my question is; can his immediate family and his close allies vote him to win election in Kwara? No.

Muina Shagaya

She’s a billionaire and ever since I knew her she has not done anything to better the lives of Kwarans with her wealth but now that she wants to nominate her son for an elective post she came home at the eve of elections thinking Kwarans are fools. Kwarans won’t vote nocturnal politicians. Shagaya is not accepted by the people of Ilorin not to now talk of Kwara at large. Many pundits sees her move as a last minute joke to stay relevant in Kwara politics.

Jani Ibrahim

Jani Ibrahim is the Chairman of Lubcon group of companies. He has shown interest in the governorship ticket of Kwara PDP. Jani Ibrahim is not a popular figure in Kwara at all. He is not connected with the people at the grassroot. In present day Nigeria popular figures win elections. For someone like Jani Ibrahim of PDP he will be a failure because he is not popular at all and he knows nothing about governance

PDP loss in Osun is a great blow to the entire Kwara PDP because what they rely mostly on is the federal might which has been punctured in Osun now their plans for Kwara has collapsed . If you observe they hardly hold meetings at state levels, ward meetings don’t exist , no empowerment programs by their leaders at all levels , so no real intention to engage the people just relying on this Federal might on day of election.