Senator Bukola Saraki is on the spot no doubt, but is he really hounded his supporters say? UCHENNA AWOM in this analysis weigh in to some of the conjectures 

Is it enough to say that Senator Bukola Saraki, former governor of Kwara State is on the slammer? Is he just a victim of some hire wire politics as being opined by some political analysts? Well, Senator Saraki is embattled no doubt about that, but it is a political war rather than a moral one and ofcourse he should not be surprised.

That notwithstanding, to what extent does Saraki know the allegation against him and the firm where he is said to hold substantial interest? If that is not the case, is his current travails driven by a fourth force?

It could be recalled that Senator Saraki was a guest of the police recently, though he was asked to go on bail according to the police, but his case nonetheless has surprisingly  gained unprecedented national momentum thus eliciting wide curiosity. He was alleged to have been part of the loan that seemingly crippled the Intercontinental Bank PLC.

Curiously a case was raised with regards to a certain transaction between him and the bank based on a statement allegedly made by the sacked Managing Director of the bank, Mr Erastus Akingbola to the Economic and Financial Crime Commission (EFCC), on a matter, which took place between 2008 and 2009.

The main gist of the case  involved some trading in shares. Saraki was quizzed by the police and the Central Bank of Nigeria[CBN]. As at today both institutions are yet to  find any trace of complicity.  It was rested at that point but the case file was said not to have been destroyed because it could still be useful in later days.

Nonetheless, Saraki's supporters are crying blue murder and are making several conjectures as to the real cause of the latest onslaught against their man. Some are making outright allegations that bordered on political witch hunting and some vindictive payback.

Of course several schools of thought are being bandied, yet observers fault the frequent recourse to politicisation of issues that could ordinarily help in the restoration of order and the general mores of the society. 

At a point, some analysts apparently reading the timing of the case alluded to the fuel subsidy motion moved by Saraki on the Senate floor, which culminated in the investigation of the oil goons and their government collaborators as the reason for his dilemma.

The motion was specifically to investigate the Fuel Subsidy Management fund that was raised on 12 October 2011 by Senator Saraki. His admirers and some other interest groups are now of the view that the motion as sensitive as it were and  can be adjudged to be his Achilles Hill.

In the Motion he reminded the Senate to note that the Federal Government of Nigeria operates a Fuel Subsidy Scheme with the policy purpose of making petroleum products available in order to cushion the effect of the true market prices of petroleum products on the populace, and in recognizing the need to make the scheme more transparent, corruption free and competitive within an appropriate legislative framework and in compliance with the Appropriation Act.

He further, notes that in furtherance of the implementation of the Fuel Subsidy in 2011 Appropriation the sum of N240bn {N20bn monthly} was budgeted.

He noted also that out of the N20bn monthly allocation, N11.2bn was allocated to Domestic Fuel Subsidy {NNPC} and N8.8bn for Domestic Fuel Supply {Market} as stated in the Appropriation Act 2011.

Therefore, he observed that although N20bn was set aside for subsidy on a monthly basis in the Appropriation Act 2011, in August 2011 the total figure expended was N165bn of which NNPC was N88bn and Independent Marketers N7.7bn.

"That although N240bn was budgeted for the entire year, so far as at the end of August 2011 N931bn has been spent. This is a variance of N771bn or 700% above budget".

So worried that in the first three months of the year both NNPC and the Independent Marketers did not exceed N62bn monthly, but within the last three months figures have ranged between N150bn and N186bn, he therefore cautioned "that with this trend, by the end of the year "we will have a Fuel Subsidy Bill of over N1.2tr as against the N240bn budgeted in the Appropriation Act.

"That the expenditure is treated as a first line charge and by implication all other expenditures and even distributions to states and local governments, which we represent is secondary.

"That the implementation of the 2011 Appropriation Act will surely be in troubled waters if  a variation of N1.2tr arises as a result of the level of expenditure incurred on Fuel Subsidy so far".

Continuing, Saraki notes that the wide disparity between what was budgeted for Fuel Subsidy scheme and what is expended goes to the integrity of the budget and an erosion of the authority of the National Assembly.

Consequently, notes that the processes, audit, scrutiny and value of money in the entire subsidy management systems lacks transparency and control as the costs have continued to maintain upward swing.

Nonetheless, Senator Saraki lamented that he was concerned that the National Assembly spends an enormous amount of energy to conclude a Capital Budget of N1.1tr for the entire country and yet a single Agency of government can incur the same amount without due approval of the National Assembly, poses a grave challenge and therefore an urgent need arises to review the subsidy scheme in order to strengthen institutional integrity, transparency and accountability.

"I am concerned that if nothing is done to address  this situation urgently we risk the non-implementation of the 2011 budget and the hopes of Nigerians that much can be achieved this year will be a mirage", he warned.

Well, shortly after several events kicked off that gave room for the later day innuendo.

The credibility of the motion  could have singled out Saraki as a marked-man. To his allies the trial of Senator Saraki was politically motivated as the case in question is at best a civil matter between bank and customer, "in this instance a case of money used to buy shares  and shares guided by the stock broker nominated by the bank (Intercontinental Bank).

In 2010 the case was first raised, when Senator Saraki indicated interest to run for President and the matter was thoroughly investigated by the Police in collaboration with the Central Bank of Nigeria. There was no trace of fraud or crime committed.

The pertinent question remains, to what extent has politics played in the matter? There could be some elements of truth in some of the allegations, but yet it only still exist in the realm of imagination.

Some of his salient supporters aver that "to divert attention from its real intention, government has had to procure witnesses who made attempts to  either vilify Saraki, smear his image or indict him".

They cite the statement attributed to the former boss of International Bank, Chief Erasus Akingbola, who is currently undergoing trial by the anti-graft agency, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC).

Akingbola, who is also in court challenging his removal from the Intercontinental Bank job, is said to have written a petition claiming that the collapse of the bank under his watch could be traced to the loans transaction, for which Saraki is being investigated.

He is said to have claimed in his petition, that the loans which were written off by the Governor of CBN, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, led to the bank's fall.

Well the lawmaker is not new to intrigues and of course the intricacies of power game.

After all in contemporary Nigeria, the maxim that politics is war by other means, is a truism. You have to be fully battle ready to survive the political heat in the country. As a politician, you have neither permanent friend nor foe. What is constant, as far as you are concerned, is your political cum economic interest.

Another interesting feature of politics in Nigeria, is the philosophy that might is right. Once you are in control of political power, every other person becomes your subject with whom you can do whatever you wish.

You are only a  strongman as far as you are within the inner circle of the ruling class. If you are at the periphery, you are as weak as any other fellow in the street. Even your best of friends will work round the clock to ensure that you remain an outsider in the power game.

Of course, Nigerian politics lacks principle. The politicians themselves can be likened to a one armed bandit who has no kin. His kin is his money. Dr Abubakar Bukola Saraki, current Senator of the Federal Republic, used to be a strong man of Nigerian politics. He is not only the son of the highly revered strongman of Kwara politics-Oloye Abubakar Olushola Saraki, he is also the immediate past Governor of Kwara State.

As Governor too, he wielded might and a robust ego. Indeed he was a very strong voice in the community of power molders. For years he held the respected position of the Chairman of the Governors' Forum-a body that about the most important power broker in our polity.

Then ,in agreement with his colleague governors, they decide who got what in the sharing of the national cake. They were constantly consulted by the Presidency, before any major policy decision in the country was [and still is ] made.

Today, there are fears that Saraki may have suddenly become of his might and pump while in office like the insinuations that It was while he occupied that position that he stepped on the toes of some influential persons of today.

One of these people of means his supporters allege is a top profile police boss, who was once the Commissioner of Police in Kwara State. As Police Commissioner, he was said not to have had a very smooth relationship with Saraki as governor. But that was not the issue.

Saraki as the Chairman of Governors' Forum, wielded enormous powers which sometimes influenced  decisions taken by the Presidency.

Some years back, according to a Saraki sympathizer who would not want his name in prints  during the regime of late President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua, the government was faced with the task of appointing top echelons of the police and were torn between  several choices and interests .

They point to the fact that Saraki failed to exert as much pressure like the one mounted by  a certain strong interest in the North, which favoured the ex-commissioner to land the juicy position, which was not to be.  The contention was that Saraki could have depoyed his powers as Chairman of the Governors Forum to get their man through.

Again the campaigners are saying that the issue of politics and struggle for power brought President Goodluck Jonathan and Saraki to collision course.

Their narrative dates  back to 2010 when the former Kwara State Governor indicated interest to run for Presidency. Jonathan was said to have become uncomfortable with Saraki's entry into the race because of one major reason-again, the position of the Chairman of the Governors' Forum, which, it was calculated, was going to be a major for him since the Governors of the Peoples Democratic Party[PDP]were likely going to settle for him as the party's flag bearer in the 2011 Presidential race. A means  was then designed to weaken his resolve.

All these was before Saraki finally lost in the Northern consensus  game  of the PDP bigwigs of Northern origin. "But his traducers would not give up, more so when their target later became a Senator from where he could become even a deadlier foe.

All said, observers still believes that allusions, conjectures and inuendos can be made in a desparate effort to whip up public sentiments, yet most times such tendences could still prove the skeptics rights. Whichever way the judiciary remains the final court not as the court of public opinion willeth.