Kwara State Governor Abdulfatah Ahmed has been endorsed for second term by many stakeholders. Group Political Editor EMMANUEL OLADESU writes on the succession battle in the North central state between the ruling All Progressives Congress and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

Ahead of next year's general elections, Kwara State Governor Abdulfatah Ahmed's second term ambition has been endorsed by no fewer than 15 groups and associations. They include students' bodies, women groups, the National Union of Road Transport Workers Union (NURTW), and other non-governmental organisations (NGOs). Also, musicians, artisans, traditional rulers and influential political leaders from the three senatorial districts are backing him. To many observers, these are core stakeholders who can mobilise for his victory at the poll.

However, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has decried the gale of endorsements, saying that it will not work. The party said that it will not brighten the chance of the governor in the election.

Few weeks ago, the Kwara North Youth Consultative Forum, the National Association of Kwara State Students (NAKSS), and the Ilorin Emirate Students Union also promised to support his candidature, if Ahmed emerges as the flag bearer of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

Giving reasons for supporting the governor's bid, the students said that his people-oriented policies and programmes are worthy of commendation. Their leadern Ajadi Muyideen, lauded what he described as Ahmed's selfless service to the people. He expressed gratitude to the goverment for the payment of bursary to tertiary students. He said the move wsas a relief to parents.

"As a body that always fights for students, we want to personally salute the courage of our dear governor for his good works and we assure him of our unalloyed support at all times," he said.

Also, the Ilorin Emirate Students Union, in its statement signed by its President, Alaburo Sherifideen, described the governor’s achievements in education as unprecedented. Sherifideen noted that the governor had been sensitive to public yearnings, pointing out that the reduction of tuition fees at the Kwara State University, Malete, by 50 per cent has reduced dropouts rate among tertiary students. He also praised the governor for making primary and post-primary education tuition free. He said the renovation and construction of classrooms had enhanced a conducive atmosphere for learning in schools.

The Coordinator of Kwara North Youth Consultative Forum, Ibrahim Kutan Muhammed, said Ahmed has success stories to tell in health, agriculture, energy, works and transport, education and youth development. "In view of his doggedness, the Kwara North Youth Consultative Forum is in full support of the governor for a second term in 2015 so that he can continue the good work," he added.

However, despite the gale of endorsements, Ahmed has other hurdles to cross. Kwara Central District, like the South, is agitating for power shift, although the zone had enjoyed the slot for 12 years. There are other calculations. The Peoples Democratic party (PDP) may zone its governorship to the Central, which is more populous and has a history of bloc votes. The propaganda of the opposition party is strong. Ahmed has been painted as the product of Saraki Dynasty at a time some elements are pushing for a shift in political alliance.

However, the governor may have done his calculations very well, ahead of the electioneering. For three and half years that he has ruled the state, he has not stirred any controversy. Also, no politician has come between him and his political leader, Senator Bukola Saraki. Unlike other states, where crises between predecessors and their successors have reached the peak, there is a cordial relationship between the former governor and Ahmed. His leader and the entire political camp are proud of his achievements. There appears to be an understanding that, since Saraki spent two terms of eight years, that precedent should be followed.

However, as the succession battle gathers momentum, the second term battle will not be a walkover for the governor. Ahmed has to work harder to secure a second term.

Following Saraki's defection to the APC, some calculations were altered. There are new permutations. There is a debate on which senatorial district is likely to guarantee victory for the party, especially when the PDP is working to snatch victory from it. Since last year, some people have said that the defection may cost the governor the second term ticket. Although there is no consensus yet on succession in the APC, some party chieftains believe that Ahmed's political future hangs in the balance, despite the fact that he has performed. However, those against his ambition allude to political expediency, claiming that since the PDP is likely to pick its flag bearer from Kwara Central, the ruling party should not be indifferent to its implications for the election. This latter group feels that another a stronger aspirant would be a better option.

Kwara Central has the highest number of voters. Therefore, it is the target of the PDP. The aspirants in the zone include Dele Belgore (SAN) and Prof. Oba Abdurahaman. But, the zone cannot solely install the governor. Therefore, the opposition party is also mobilising support in the South, where the governor comes from, and the North, to pull the rug of the feet of the APC.

In spite of the permutation, the APC is still believed to have an edge over the PDP. The ruling party is popular across the three districts. Not only has it been able to overcome the regression to ethnic division by the PDP, but, unlike the PDP, which lacks an arrowhead, the APC is forging ahead under the leadership of Saraki, ably supported by his lieutenant, Ahmed.

But, the uneasiness in the APC, which was triggered by the strategic decision of the PDP to pick its candidate from the Central, has not fizzled out. Since the zone is regarded as a huge electoral asset, given the fact that it boasts of the highest number of registered voters, the anxiety in the APC and among the governor's is not unfounded.

If the PDP eventually picks its candidate from the zone, as being speculated, the South, where the governor hails from, would be up for grabs. Sources said that the North could go either way. But, the endorsements may altered the conjecture, as the APC and its supporters are not sleeping on guard. In fact, the endorsements are part of the strategies to convince the anti-second term ambition that people are pushing for continuity because Ahmed is popular.

A strong message was sent to the governor's critics when he was endorsed by stakeholders from the North District. The Emir of Lafiagi, Alhaji Kawu Haliru, has thrown his weight behind his second term bid. The endorsement ceremony was witnessed by former Governor Shaaba Lafiagi, who is representing the district in the Senate, House of Representatives member Aman Pategi, many public office holders, community leaders, representatives of professional groups, youths, women, artisans and peasants. Speakers at the event highlighted developmental projects and empowerment schemes across the districts. Urging the APC to field him in next year's poll, they maintained that the governor has lived up to expectation.

Emir Haliru, a highly respected leader, is believed to have spoken the minds of his people. Analysts believe that his blessings also came as a relieve to the governor’s camp, as it meant that the zone's agitation for power shift, may not affect APC's chances at the polls.

The endorsement by stakeholders from the North is also significant for another reason. It may weaken the alleged one term pact between the governor and his leader. In 2011, the feeling was that Ahmed will spend one term and handover to a governor from the North. But, since the endorsement of the governor, there has not been any contrary view.

Also, the North, like the Central, has the advantage of a bloc vote. Although there are some PDP governorship aspirants from the zone, they are paper weight actors.

The South, where the governor hails from, is solidly behind the him. Many analysts believe that the endorsement and the mobilisation of indigenes appear to have properly positioned the governor for the final endorsement by the party. In fact, his kinsmen have embarked on an aggressive mobilisation for his ambition.

During the voter's registration, they trooped out for the exercise. Now, the calculation is that the combined forces of Saraki in the Central and Ahmed's foot soldiers in the South should forge a working alliance with compatriots in the North to ensure the push for continuity next year.

However, the PDP is of the opinion that the APC's calculations would hit the rock. According to its leaders, this agenda may not work. The PDP believes that endorsements do not translate into electoral victory, adding that the royal father who has endorsed Ahmed lacked the mandate of the voting public.

The PDP Deputy Publicity Secretary, Femi Yusuf, doubted the validity of the endorsements, saying that it is unreliable. He said the next election would be a battle of supremacy between the APC and the PDP. Faulting the endorsements, he said they were instigated by the government.

"We see the endorsement as a mere figment of the imagination of the APC. It does not provide the party with any leverage when the election comes.

"That aside, the traditional ruler is a civil servant, who collects salary from the state government monthly. So, what do you expect? When they are endorsing him for a second term, what would warrant the endorsement? What have they done for the area for them to say he should continue in office?

"You can only deserve endorsement, if you have surpassed the previous administrations. But, the past 12 years have shown that the people of the North District have been neglected. Go to Baruten or Kayama, Lafiagi and Patigi to see for yourself."

However, the Special Adviser to the governor on Communication Strategy, Alhaji Raheem Adedoyin, disagreed with the PDP spokesman. He said:"The governor, through his 'Shared Prosperity Agenda', has sustained the impactful developmental momentum of his predecessor and he actually deserves the support of well-meaning people to continue his people-oriented projects.

"He has successfully consolidated on the projects of the former governor and opened up new ones, which have direct bearing on the people and that simply explains why the people are clamouring for continuity."